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Markets Bet on No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 as Kevin Warsh Takes Over With 3.8% CPI
Traders are increasingly pricing a full-year Fed hold in 2026, with CME FedWatch showing 95%–98% odds of no change at upcoming meetings. Ahead of the June 17 FOMC decision, Kalshi and Polymarket activity totals more than $42M combined in volume favoring an unchanged 3.50%–3.75% target range. Elevated inflation signals including April CPI near 3.8% y/y and unemployment around 4.3%–4.4% are cited as key constraints on easing.
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Morgan Stanley's Serena Tang Backs US Stocks Over Core Bonds, Keeps S&P 500 8,300 Goal
On May 20, 2026, Morgan Stanley chief cross-asset strategist Serena Tang said the bank is staying constructive on risk assets through the rest of 2026 despite rising geopolitical, energy-price and credit-market uncertainty. She pointed to expectations for resilient US growth and earnings, plus an AI-driven capex cycle, while reiterating an S&P 500 mid-2027 target of 8,300 and a preference for equities over core fixed income.
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Intesa Sanpaolo reports $235M crypto exposure in Q1 2026 across Bitcoin, ETH and XRP
Intesa Sanpaolo disclosed that its crypto-related holdings rose from about $100M in Q4 2025 to roughly $235M in Q1 2026, including Bitcoin ETFs and new exposure to Ethereum and XRP. The filing also shows a new $95.9M call option tied to BlackRock’s IBIT, alongside increased positions in ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and IBIT shares. The positions are described as proprietary trading on the bank’s own balance sheet, not a client product.
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Fed survey: 10% of Americans used crypto in 2025, mostly for investing
A Federal Reserve survey found that 10% of Americans used cryptocurrency in 2025, up from 7% in 2023 and the highest level since the 2022 bear market. The data suggests most participation was investment-led (9% bought or held crypto), while everyday use stayed limited, with 2% using it for purchases and 1% sending money to friends or family. The report also notes a tougher macro backdrop as the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5% and job-related financial concern increased to 42% from 37%.
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