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Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $60,000, With Markets Split on Whether a Bottom Is Forming
Bitcoin has bounced after briefly slipping under $60,000, reviving debate over whether the latest pullback is close to a cycle low. Prices fell to about $59,100 last week before rebounding to roughly $64,000 this week, though funding-rate and on-chain signals remain mixed.
In a client note, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, said he believes this cycle's low may already be in. He pointed to two potential catalysts: expectations that U.S.-Iran tensions could ease and SpaceX's anticipated IPO.
Kendrick argued that any de-escalation in geopolitics could reduce upward pressure on oil and U.S. Treasury yields, improving conditions for risk assets. He also suggested some investors may have trimmed Bitcoin ETF holdings to position for a SpaceX deal; once that transaction is completed, the concentrated ETF selling pressure could fade.
On-chain indicators are moving into a range some analysts consider sensitive. CryptoQuant data shows bitcoin is now only about 9% above its "realized price," a measure of the average cost basis of coins in circulation based on the last transacted price of each coin. Historically, market lows in major bear phases have often coincided with spot prices converging toward realized price, leading some analysts to view current levels as approaching a valuation-sensitive zone.
Another closely watched metric is that more than half of bitcoin's circulating supply is currently underwater, meaning holders bought at prices above today's market level. Analyst Vetle Lunde said similar conditions have previously appeared near market bottoms, as the share of positions still in profit—and therefore more likely to keep selling—tends to shrink. He cautioned, though, that another leg down remains possible before any sustained recovery takes hold.
ETF flows continue to be the main drag. Bears still point to softening demand: Bloomberg data shows U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of about $5.8 billion over the past month, suggesting institutional inflows have not yet returned on a steady basis.
CryptoQuant added that roughly 187,000 bitcoins were sold at a loss over the past 30 days. While sizable, that figure remains below the concentrated capitulation seen after the FTX collapse in 2022 and is also less severe than earlier selloffs this year. The market has seen some clearing, but not the type of extreme panic often associated with the end of prior bear cycles.
For bulls, persistent outflows may reflect further rotation and positioning; for bears, they look like continued deterioration in demand. The more precise takeaway may be less "the bottom is confirmed" and more that bitcoin is moving into a plausible valuation-bottom zone. The rebound is in place, but whether ETF outflows stabilize and institutional demand re-accelerates will likely shape the next phase of price action.