White House Holds to July 4 Target for CLARITY Act as Prediction Markets Stay Split

The White House says it remains on track to pass the CLARITY Act, a major crypto market structure bill, by its original July 4 target date. In a recent interview, White House chief crypto adviser Patrick Witt said negotiations are advancing on three areas Democratic senators flagged as priorities: the Senate Agriculture Committee's approach to defining the CFTC's role in crypto markets (referred to as "Ag"), ethics provisions, and developer protection language under the BRCA. Witt said work is progressing daily, with groups "at the table" exchanging draft language, and he maintained he is optimistic the July 4 timeline can still be met. The comments come after earlier reports suggested ethics talks had a "rocky" start. Even so, the Senate schedule is crowded, and lawmakers have until just before the August recess to get the bill over the finish line. Prediction markets remain unconvinced. As of publication, Polymarket implied a 51% chance the bill passes by year-end. Kalshi, which has roughly double Polymarket's volume in the same market, put the odds at 46%. Together, pricing suggests investors see the outcome as close to a coin flip. For the near-term timeline, Kalshi traders assigned about a 30% probability the bill clears before August. While those July odds have risen roughly 10 percentage points over the past two days, they remain low, highlighting a gap between White House confidence and market expectations. Beyond limited floor time, analysts—including at JPMorgan—have warned the legislation could bog down over stablecoin yield issues. With few additional details emerging from negotiations, the bill's path remains uncertain. Key takeaways: - The White House says it can still meet a July 4 deadline for passing the CLARITY Act. - Prediction markets are roughly 50/50 on year-end passage and price about a 30% chance of passage by July.