Bitcoin has traded below $90,000 since mid-December, with resistance near $94,000. On Dec 26, open interest fell roughly 50% after expiry, while options skews turned negative across tenors, signaling hedging. U.S. spot ETFs saw $5.5 billion of outflows in late 2025, even as cumulative inflows stayed only 9% below an October $62 billion peak.

Protests erupted in Tehran on Monday after the rial plunged to record lows against the US dollar. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley said in an X post that Bitcoin offers a way to safeguard savings as currencies weaken, while the Financial Times reported the rial is around 1.4 million per dollar after losing over 40% purchasing power since June.

Between 22 and 28 December, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, acquired 1,129 Bitcoin for about $108.8 million, lifting its total BTC stash to 672,497 coins valued at roughly $50.44 billion. Over the same week, Bitmine Immersion increased its Ethereum holdings by 44,463 ETH to 4,110,525 ETH, while BTC and ETH prices remained under pressure and both firms' stocks continued to trade far below their all-time highs.

In 2025, Bitcoin faced tight liquidity, a U.S.-China tariff conflict, and other macro headwinds even as it set four new all-time highs, the latest near $126k. With 2026 approaching, factors such as the Clarity Act‑driven deregulation, stimulus checks, the end of quantitative tightening, and strong retail participation are being compared to the 2020 stimulus cycle that preceded BTC’s rally from $10k to $69k. If these conditions play out in a similar way, some traders believe Bitcoin could be positioned for another powerful upside phase.

Bitcoin attempted a relief bounce above $88,500 and briefly broke the $89,000 level, but sellers capped the move just below $90,000. The BTC price has since given back those gains, is trading under $88,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average, and is consolidating around the $86,500–$86,700 support area. As long as $86,500 holds, the market may try to reclaim $87,500–$88,500, while a clear break lower could expose supports at $85,500, $85,000 and even $83,500.

According to on-chain data shared by Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently trading close to the cost basis of active market participants, implying this group is roughly at break-even. The analysis compares the spot price with several realized price models, including the overall Realized Price at $56,200, the True Market Mean at $81,100, the Active Realized Price at $87,700, and the Short-Term Holder Realized Price at $99,900. With Bitcoin hovering near $87,700 and down 2.6% over the past week, short-term holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses while the broader active cohort remains neutral.

Bitcoin's spot and perpetual flows are sending mixed signals, with spot buyers adding about $113.23 million in the last two days and December purchases exceeding $4.11 billion. Shorts lost $40.56 million versus $2.47 million for longs, while a 0.0077% positive funding rate and a >1 Taker Buy/Sell Ratio keep buyer bias in play.

Short‑term charts are fading while longer‑term gauges tilt bearish, with a composite weekly screen turning to sell and key levels cited at $86,000 support and $93,400 resistance. Forecasts for 2026 diverge, with some industry voices expecting new highs on institutional participation and others warning of a slide toward $50,000 or even $10,000.