Bitcoin (BTC) staged an impressive 10% recovery in early July 2026, climbing back above $63,000 as macro policy shifts under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reignited institutional interest. Despite enduring a record $4.5 billion U.S. spot ETF withdrawal in June and a surprising $216 million corporate liquidation by Strategy Inc., fresh political backing from Donald Trump has established a strong technical floor.

Goldman Sachs expects the Japanese yen to weaken further, a move that could revive carry trades. Carry trades typically involve borrowing in a low-yielding currency such as the yen and reallocating into higher-yielding or higher-risk assets. Historically, this kind of macro liquidity shift has correlated with short-term rallies in Bitcoin, as investors seek yield and take on more volatility. The view did not include a specific timetable or trigger level and reflects a macro outlook rather than an immediate policy change or data release, according to Goldman Sachs.

Bitcoin rose above $63,000 after market concerns about a Federal Reserve rate hike eased. The move aligned with a broader shift in macro sentiment toward expectations of easier financial conditions, rather than being driven by crypto-specific events, according to Investing.com. The report focused solely on BTC’s price move and its macro rationale, with no mention of other crypto assets, protocol updates, regulatory developments, or on-chain activity.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a dynamic relief rally, climbing 1.19% to $63,392.39 following weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data and the reversal of a 10-day spot ETF outflow streak. While macro rate repricing has triggered massive short liquidations, long-term indicators warn that sustainable recovery hinges on breaking key overhead resistance near $65,000.

The Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its June FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, after policymakers kept rates unchanged amid rising inflation pressures. A packed U.S. data slate also includes the S&P Global Services PMI, ADP employment, initial jobless claims, existing home sales and the IEA monthly report. U.S. equities’ total market capitalization has reached a record $80 trillion, about 48% of global market cap, while crypto started the week slightly higher with bitcoin at $63,700 and ether near $1,800. These events do not target any specific token, but they can influence broader risk assets via rate expectations and liquidity conditions.

Pi42 co-founder and CEO Avinash Shekhar said the crypto market shifted from panic to stabilisation over the past week after Bitcoin defended the $58,000 support zone and climbed back above $62,000. He said XRP outperformed on optimism around institutional adoption and ETF participation, while Dogecoin also joined the rebound. Shekhar added that macro factors—particularly the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” rate outlook and inflation data—are increasingly steering sentiment as digital assets track global liquidity expectations. He also pointed to continued institutional buildout in on-chain financial infrastructure and tokenisation, while noting that near-term prices remain driven by macro conditions.

Over the next 20 years, $124 trillion in U.S. household wealth is expected to change hands, with roughly $105 trillion flowing to heirs and more than $60 trillion going to millennials and Gen Z combined. Surveys show younger generations report materially higher crypto ownership and larger portfolio allocations than older cohorts, including 49%–51% ownership and 14% vs 1% allocations among wealthy investors. Grayscale estimates that if just 2% of transferred assets move into crypto, it could translate into $2.2 trillion in additional demand. Wall Street firms are expanding spot trading and ETF access to meet generational demand, though spousal transfers, healthcare spending, and gradual rebalancing could delay the pace of inflows.

Ether broke above $1,700 this week and briefly reached $1,786.09 after rebounding 13% from the $1,500 support zone. The move followed a sharp miss in the June U.S. NonFarm Payrolls report at 57,000 versus a 110K–115K consensus, which pressured the U.S. Dollar Index and lifted risk assets including ETH. Technically, ETH moved above the 100-hour simple moving average while the RSI held above 50, with a 4-hour RSI bullish divergence also cited. Resistance is seen at $1,780–$1,820, while Citi maintains a $2,240 target.