Commodity

Traders are planning to ship large volumes of Brazilian arabica to ICE delivery warehouses as ICE-certified inventories hover around 220,000 bags, a 26-year low. Expected deliveries of roughly 300,000 bags would not lift stocks to the 1 million-bag level traders consider comfortable. Brazil’s coffee exports to Belgium jumped 245.3% year on year in August to more than 525,000 60kg bags, according to government data analysed by Brazilian broker Terra Investimentos. Tight exchange stocks have been a key factor keeping coffee prices around $3 per lb.

Traders are preparing to deliver large volumes of Brazilian Arabica coffee to ICE exchange warehouses to rebuild certified inventories that have fallen to a 26-year low. Olam and Louis Dreyfus Company are seeking to certify up to 200,000 bags for delivery against the December futures contract, with shipments to Antwerp, Belgium, rising. Although the 2026/27 season is forecast to be in surplus, ICE stocks remain well below normal levels and Brazil’s harvest has been delayed by extreme weather, keeping futures prices around $3 per pound.

Brent crude rose 6.34% to $107.63 per barrel on September 10, 2026, as tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and new risks to Red Sea export routes intensified supply fears. This analysis examines the rally, technical levels and the physical-flow signals that could shape the next move.

A Bloomberg survey shows India’s sugar production in the 2026-27 season is expected to fall to 29 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes, below 31 million tonnes projected for the current season, as El Niño-linked dryness threatens the crop. Monsoon rainfall is running about 15% below normal, raising risks for sugarcane. To shore up inventories, India may need to import 2 million tonnes to 3 million tonnes of sugar. Raw sugar futures in New York have risen nearly 30% this year.

A strengthening El Niño has pushed India’s monsoon rainfall to about 15% below normal, raising risks for the next sugar crop. Analysts expect India’s 2026/27 sugar output to fall to 29 million to 31 million tons, versus 31 million tons this season. The International Sugar Organization has warned the global market could face a deficit of roughly 260,000 tons. India last month allowed duty-free imports of raw sugar to curb record domestic prices, while New York raw sugar futures are up about 30% this year.

Silver extended its decline as rising U.S. Treasury yields and firmer expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase pressured the metal, pushing silver ETFs down more than 3%. SBI Silver ETF fell 3.2% and ICICI Prudential Silver ETF slid 3.1%. Spot silver slipped 0.3% to $63.40 an ounce after plunging 5.5% in the prior session, while the probability of a rate hike rose to around 70%, according to Reuters. Gold ETFs also traded lower, and Brent crude climbed 6% on geopolitical conflict.

India’s gold ETFs recorded net inflows of Rs 2,596 crore in August, up 67% from Rs 1,558 crore in July and 19% higher than August 2025. Gold prices rose around 15% from July to August, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields. Analysts say investors should view gold mainly as a diversification tool and keep allocations appropriate, rather than chasing recent gains.

India’s cotton yarn prices have risen 60% since early 2026 to about Rs 400 per kg, lifting costs across the textile chain. Provisional government data show cotton output at 290.91 lakh bales in the 202526 season, down from 352.48 lakh bales in 202021, contributing to an estimated shortage of around 10 lakh bales. Tiruppur exporters say the surge has pushed production costs up by as much as 15%, tightening margins. The industry is also grappling with concerns that recent free trade agreements may not translate into gains if input costs remain elevated.

Spot gold rose 0.2% on Friday to $4,324.79, but is down more than 2% so far this week and is set for a third consecutive weekly decline. Pressure on bullion intensified after U.S. August PPI data came in above expectations, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve could raise rates. Traders are now awaiting U.S. CPI figures for clearer signals on the Fed’s policy path. Spot silver slipped 0.3% and is down more than 4% for the week.

Brent crude futures rose 1% to $108.68 a barrel and WTI gained 1% to $103.45, putting both benchmarks on track to end the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since midMay. Attacks along key Middle East shipping routes stoked concerns about supply disruptions, leaving oil up nearly 13% on the week, the steepest gain since the week ended July 17. Gold was steady near $4,315 an ounce while silver slipped 0.3% to $63.40 an ounce.