A softer-than-expected US jobs report pushed rate-hike odds lower and sent the dollar toward its biggest weekly drop since early April, helping Bitcoin rebound above $62,100. Options positioning remains defensive: Deribit data show the one-week 25-delta put-call skew near 16%, indicating puts still trade at a premium to calls. A large July 17 call-condor structure with strikes at $64,000/$66,000/$68,000/$70,000 concentrates resistance in the $66,000–$68,000 band, and thin holiday liquidity could leave price action heavily driven by that setup.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest-ever monthly net outflow in June 2026, totaling about $4.0 to $4.5 billion, even as the Dollar Index (DXY) slipped to 101.41 and markets priced roughly a 30% chance of a July rate hike. On-chain data show exchange BTC balances near a multi-month low of about 2.71 million BTC, pointing to tighter immediately available spot supply. The article argues Bitcoin’s ability to hold support depends on confirmation of both sustained dollar weakness and a cooling of ETF outflows, rather than any single driver.

Donald Trump said a sharp rebound in U.S. stocks signals the start of a “Golden Age” for the country and argued that stronger growth could give the Federal Reserve room to cut rates. Bitcoin rose 1.99% to $62,583, while Ethereum traded near $1,751 and XRP around $1.13. The move was driven largely by a macro-led short squeeze after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data lifted rate-cut expectations. The article also cites a reported 76% correlation between bitcoin and gold, alongside Trump’s support for a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment without outlining specific policies.

On July 3, 2026, the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls data came in below expectations, pointing to a cooling labor market. The release strengthened market expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in the third quarter of 2026. Bitcoin extended its strong rally on the day as investors treated weaker employment data as a positive signal. While such macro data do not directly affect crypto protocols or token mechanics, they can influence risk-asset pricing for bitcoin through rate expectations and liquidity conditions.

Former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, speaking at the European Central Bank Forum in Sintra, did not rule out a July rate hike, stoking concerns that policy could turn more hawkish. Independent analyst Dana Love, PhD, said the shift is a key variable threatening MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin strategy. The company’s STRC preferred shares—$100 par value and paying $12 annually—have slipped below $89, reflecting weakening confidence in the durability of its financing, according to Love.

The title highlights the release of US Non-Farm Payroll data, a key leading indicator for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The report is typically published on the first Friday of each month and can shift expectations for the pace of rate hikes or cuts. While no release time is specified, it frames the data as major news from the US alongside crypto, gold and equity markets. It adds that a significant deviation from consensus could trigger sharp moves in the dollar index and US Treasury yields, potentially spilling over into prices for major cryptoassets such as BTC and ETH.

On July 3, 2026, the United States is set to release June nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Tesla will report global electric-vehicle deliveries for the second quarter of 2024. The EU’s top court has ruled against Google in an Android antitrust case, upholding a €4.1 billion fine. These developments are closely watched across traditional markets and technology, with the jobs data a high-frequency macro indicator that influences pricing for the Federal Reserve’s policy path and can indirectly transmit risk-appetite shifts to crypto assets.

On July 2, 2026, bitcoin fell to $58,278—more than 50% below its October 2025 peak—while gold dropped to $4,025 an ounce. Markets repriced rate expectations after new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, lifting real yields and weighing on non-yielding assets. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted $4.5 billion of net outflows in June, their worst month since launching in 2024, and bitcoin fell 20.48% for the month. Bitcoin has also broken below a key 200-week moving-average support level.