Iran fires missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; oil prices move higher

Good morning. Today is Wednesday, July 29, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush market brief. Top headlines 1) Gulf sources say Oman has presented Iran with a proposal to set up a regional joint mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz, funded by voluntary contributions from users of the waterway. 2) China's photovoltaic glass sector saw kiln operating capacity fall by nearly 6,000 tons per day in July, with production cuts picking up pace. 3) Talison, a Tianqi Lithium subsidiary, expects its third-stage chemical-grade lithium concentrate plant to resume operations within the next few days. 4) Zimbabwe's first lithium smelting and processing plant has started up, and additional facilities are expected to come online one after another. 5) Indonesia's Presidential Office has stepped into rare earth export controls, saying the scope of any export ban must not be expanded. 6) Several Chinese lithium salt producers plan maintenance shutdowns in August–September; the combined output impact is estimated at about 9,000–9,500 tons in August. 7) After a six-month pause in environmental review, CATL's Yichun lithium mine has made fresh procedural progress. 8) China's Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will adjust urban land use tax policy for certain energy and resource enterprises. 9) U.S. officials said Iran launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and that Jordan intercepted them. The strike was described as Iran's first missile attack on a U.S. base in the region since the U.S. halted attacks on Iran last Friday. Macro and geopolitics • China's Ministry of Finance and other agencies said that for land qualifying for urban land use tax reductions or exemptions under existing rules (including provisions tied to the power industry), the tax will be levied at half-rate from September 1, 2026 to August 31, 2027, and return to full collection from September 1, 2027. • Reuters cited Gulf sources saying Oman's Hormuz proposal draws on the Malacca Strait model, where stakeholders voluntarily fund navigation safety, environmental protection, and search-and-rescue services. The framework would prevent Iran from having sole control over the Strait of Hormuz. • On July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce released "China's Position on the So-Called Issue of 'Overcapacity'," urging an objective view of capacity issues and warning that protectionism would disrupt global trade, supply-chain stability, and long-term growth. • ADP said that over the four weeks ending July 11, 2026, private-sector employers added an average of 15,000 jobs per week. • U.S. President Trump said it is a good time for Iran to reach an agreement and that he hopes to avoid striking Iran's bridges and power plants. He also said Iran must issue a formal statement denying it has nuclear weapons, adding that if no deal is reached, "destroying Mount Khojir" would be easy. • U.S. Central Command later said that at 5:45 p.m. Eastern Time (5:45 a.m. Beijing Time), Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles in an attempted surprise attack on U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East. • Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported Iran has proposed talks with Oman on a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz that would replace the current north–south route. Iran's deputy foreign minister said Oman suggested a 50/50 control structure, which Iran says does not address its concerns. Global futures moves • Crude: WTI front-month settled down 4.21% at $79.13/bbl; Brent front-month fell 3.33% to $83.01/bbl. • Precious metals: COMEX gold slipped 1.18% to $4,028.80/oz; COMEX silver dropped 2.35% to $57.34/oz. Markets pointed to firmer Fed hike expectations and elevated rate projections weighing on metals, while U.S.–Iran tensions did not show material escalation. • LME base metals closed lower across the board: lead -0.29% to $1,885.5/ton; aluminum -0.60% to $3,148.5/ton; copper -0.64% to $13,644.5/ton; zinc -1.22% to $3,567.5/ton; nickel -1.56% to $16,945.0/ton; tin -1.72% to $53,405.0/ton. Ferrous and bulk commodities • Mysteel said Yuxi Xianfu plans to inspect a 1,350 m³ blast furnace for 25 days in early August, implying an average daily crude steel reduction of 0.5 million tons and an estimated 1.25 million-ton impact on construction steel output. • Satellite data showed iron ore inventories across seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 14.403 million tons for July 20–26, 2026, down 594,000 tons from the prior period. Inventories remain at a high level for the year. Agricultural markets • India's Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare reported sugarcane planted area at 5.758 million hectares as of July 24, up 1.5% year over year (5.672 million hectares a year earlier) and 6.2% above the normal area of 5.420 million hectares (five-year average for 2020/21–2024/25). • China Reserve Cotton Management planned to auction 8,006.3920 tons of reserve cotton and sold 8,006.3920 tons (100% turnover). The average price was RMB 17,187.02/ton, down RMB 88.31 from the 27th; equivalent 3128B price was RMB 17,798.50/ton. The high was RMB 17,980/ton and the low RMB 16,480/ton. • China's National Grain and Oils Information Center said soybean meal inventories at crushers rose last week to 9.3 million tons. Operating rates are expected to increase in the final week of July, with crush volumes potentially above last week and inventories continuing to build. • SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports for July 1–25 at 912,365 tons, down 17.93% from 1,111,668 tons in the same period last month. • From August 1, India will require sugar dealers to report and regularly update inventories. Dealers may not hold more than 4,000 quintals at any time or location nationwide, and inventories must not exceed 30 days. • As of July 28, national port soybean oil inventories stood at 9.93 million metric tons versus 9.76 million metric tons on July 21, up 17,000 metric tons. • Abiove raised its 2026 Brazil soybean export estimate to 115.4 million metric tons from 114.1 million. Soybean crush was revised up to 63.3 million metric tons from 63.0 million. Ending stocks were revised down to 6.58 million metric tons from 7.87 million, still the highest since 2019. • USDA said a private exporter reported a sale of 197,272 metric tons of corn to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. • StoneX forecasts a global sugar deficit of 1.7 million tons in the 2026/27 season (starting October), versus a revised surplus of 2.94 million tons in the current season. Energy and chemicals • SMM said China's PV glass kiln capacity fell nearly 6,000 tons/day in July, driven mainly by the top seven producers. Smaller firms slowed their cutbacks, suggesting leading players are also contributing to a tightening supply picture. Prices are expected to rise on tighter availability. • Reuters reported Saudi Aramco is considering changes to oil pricing to reflect higher freight costs for cargoes loaded at Egypt's Sidi Kerir bound for Asia. • Two OPEC+ representatives said the group is expected to pause further quota increases after a final hike in September as it gauges the fast-changing supply impact of the war in Iran. OPEC+ is expected to meet around August 2 to approve a 188,000 bpd increase for September, completing the current phase of hikes, with no further increases planned this year. Metals: lithium, rare earths, copper • Jingji Daily reported the Greenbushes CGP3 facility, part of the world's largest hard-rock lithium mine, is expected to restart within days after a June fire. The facility has been down about seven weeks. Greenbushes spodumene output this quarter reached 387,000 tons, up 10% from 351,000 tons in the prior quarter. • Foreign media reported Zimbabwe's first lithium refining facility has officially begun operations. Mines Minister Polite Kambamura said a lithium carbonate refinery is nearing completion and several lithium sulfate plants are expected to start before a lithium concentrate export ban takes effect in January 2027. • A Mysteel survey said that on July 27, 2026, Indonesia's Presidential Office chief Dodo Abdullah chaired a coordination meeting on rare earth (LTJ) export governance, urging agencies not to obstruct normal trade without clear rules and not to broaden export bans. Short-term disruptions to nickel product exports may ease. • SMM said Yichun Mining Company's July auction of lithium mica concentrate (1.85% Li) from the Huaqiao Dagang kaolin mine cleared at RMB 3,700/ton, ex-works with buyer pickup. • SMM estimated that planned maintenance at multiple Chinese lithium salt plants will cut output by about 9,000–9,500 tons in August and about 2,500 tons in September, implying a temporary supply dip. • Shanghai Securities News reported that on July 27, the Yichun Bidding Network posted a draft environmental impact assessment information notice for the Lixi Li and Jianxiawo lithium mining project in Yifeng and Fengxin counties, Jiangxi, marking the start of public consultation. The update signals the project is advancing through legal procedures toward resumption and could temper earlier expectations of "full output in the short term." • Citi kept a constructive near-term view on copper, reiterating targets of $14,500/ton over 0–3 months and $15,000/ton by year-end, noting copper's resilience despite a pullback in speculative longs and broader commodity weakness. • LME positioning data for the week ending July 24, 2026 showed investment funds net long 38,000 lots of LME copper, up 6,977 lots week on week (longs +5,788; shorts -1,189). Commercial participants were net short 29,700 lots, up 2,925 lots. Market commentary: selected futures themes • Soda ash: Everbright Futures said the market weakened on Tuesday, with soda ash making fresh intraday lows as supply rises and demand softens. Environmental policy implementation has brought mandatory inspections for this high-energy-consuming industry, covering compliance and emissions. With an inspection cycle of about three months, near-term concentrated shutdowns look unlikely and the near-term price support is limited. The latest industry operating rate was 81.26%, up 0.22 percentage points day on day. Downstream demand remains weak, with many PV glass lines expected to stay offline. • Indonesia export controls: Kim Rui Futures said easing U.S.–Iran tensions have reduced medium- to long-term supply-risk concerns for MHP. Indonesia's sulfur inventory is sufficient into September, keeping the market focused on medium-term disruption risk. Customs inspections recently impeded exports of alumina and MHP, but the Presidential Office has instructed that export bans should not be expanded; the near-term price impact appears limited. Key upcoming data and events • July 29, 22:30: U.S. EIA weekly crude oil inventories (week ended July 24). • July 30, 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision. • July 30 (time TBA): Mysteel national steel production and inventory data. • July 30, 20:30: First estimate of U.S. Q2 real GDP (annualized). • July 30, 20:30: U.S. June Core PCE Price Index. • July 30, 20:30: USDA weekly export sales report.