Geopolitics

Brent crude rose about 8% last week, hovering near $95 a barrel as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions fueled worries about potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. India’s foreign-exchange reserves climbed to a record $740.8 billion as of August 28, giving the central bank a larger buffer to manage currency swings. In the U.S., August nonfarm payrolls increased by 1,62,000, keeping uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook in focus.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is carrying out a large-scale economic isolation effort dubbed “Operation Economic Outcast” aimed at tightly blockading Iran. He said about 30 million barrels of Iranian crude are unable to be exported and cannot be replenished through new shipments. The Iranian rial has fallen more than 60% since March, inflation has climbed above 80%, and the IMF projects the economy will contract 6.1% this year. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to about 18 million barrels a day, down from pre-war levels.

US Central Command said it struck three Iranian crude oil carriers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles toward two US Navy warships. CENTCOM said the strikes permanently disabled M/T Downy near Kharg Island and M/T Stark 1 near Jask. It also said M/T Kylo was destroyed in the Gulf of Oman, and no losses have been reported.

Vice President JD Vance said U.S. military escort operations helped prevent a global energy crisis during the war with Iran. The six-month conflict pushed the national average diesel price to a record $5.85 per gallon, disrupting global fuel supplies and driving up crude oil prices. The United States also approved potential arms sales to Saudi Arabia, including $5 billion in Joint Direct Attack Munitions and related equipment and a separate $750 million package for tank engines and associated support.

Virgin Group founder Sir Richard Branson said Middle East tensions have disrupted oil production and transport, sending jet fuel prices higher and lifting airfares. The European benchmark jet fuel price has risen from around $800 a tonne to about $1,450 after peaking at more than $1,800 in April. Virgin Atlantic has responded by adding fuel surcharges of £50 for economy, £180 for premium and £360 for business class.

Donald Trump warned he would stop trading with countries where the United States runs a trade deficit if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates. He urged the central bank to lower rates immediately and said the U.S. should have the lowest interest rate in the world. With inflation and housing costs elevated, a Gallup Research poll in August found 74% of Americans think the economic outlook is worsening, up from 63% a year earlier.

Grain is piling up in barns across southern Ukraine, but drone strikes and attacks on Black Sea ports have sharply curtailed shipments. Exports in August fell to about 20% of normal levels, while Russia’s grain exports also sank to a 10year low, according to The New York Times. The disruption is tightening global supply and raising the risk of worsening food shortages.

Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz linked to the ongoing conflict with Iran have constrained access to about 20% of global oil and natural gas supplies, pushing crude above $90 a barrel this week. The rebound in energy costs is adding to inflation pressures at a time when U.S. inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Fed Chair Warsh reiterated the 2% commitment but warned the economy has entered a new phase of inflation and that further action may be needed if underlying trends do not improve.

Japanese stocks fell sharply on Wednesday after renewed U.S.-Iran military strikes pushed oil prices higher and stoked worries about economic growth. The Nikkei 225 ended down 2.95% at 64,254.56, while the Topix fell 2.37%. Higher government bond yields weighed on growth shares, with tech and chip-related names under pressure and SoftBank Group down more than 6%. Defensive drugmakers bucked the decline and rose.

After the U.S. targeted Iranian tankers, the risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz increased, pushing WTI and Brent to $91.05 and $95.68, respectively. Both benchmarks have risen by about $5 since hostilities between the two countries resumed. API data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels, while another 3.1 million barrels were released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to support commercial stocks.