Commodity

Gold came under pressure after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report cooled expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut and lifted the dollar. Comex gold futures slipped below $4,440 an ounce intraday, down 0.83% from the previous close. Meanwhile, rising Middle East tensions helped push WTI crude above $92 a barrel and Brent above $97.

India’s sugar recovery rate has continued to decline, tightening supply and lifting prices. Wholesale sugar prices rose to Rs 5,747 per quintal in September, up more than 30% from June. Sugar companies’ procurement costs remain elevated, prompting Bikaji Foods to begin rolling out a roughly 2% price increase. Analysts warn prices for festive-season staples such as biscuits and sweets could rise another 2–5%.

A 1% rise in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar, driven by FCNR deposit inflows, has weighed on rupee-denominated gold and silver prices. India’s spot gold fell 4% over eight trading sessions to ₹1,54,884, while silver also dropped 4% to ₹2,35,456. Over the same period, U.S. spot gold slid 3% to $4,523 an ounce, pointing to broader weakness in global bullion prices. The pullback ahead of the festive season is influencing consumer buying behaviour, with some holding off purchases amid uncertainty.

Asian wheat importers have bought at least 500,000 tons from Argentina and Australia to replace delayed Black Sea cargoes. Australian Premium White wheat has traded around $315$330 per ton and Argentine wheat around $310$315 per ton, well above the $260 to $280 per ton seen for Black Sea cargoes. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures have risen about 35% since late June, while cash prices have climbed across competing exporters. Asian processors have booked about 2.0 million to 2.5 million tons of Black Sea wheat for July-September shipment, covering roughly 30% to 50% of import demand.

U.S. diesel prices climbed to a record average of $5.85 a gallon on Friday, up 55% since the Iran war began in late February. Gasoline averaged $4.14 a gallon, the highest ever for this time of year. Global oil prices hovered near $94 a barrel, well above the $72.50 level seen before the war. U.S. annual inflation was 3.4% in July, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Global food prices rose in August, with the UN food price index up 1.9% from July and 2.5% from August 2025, accelerating from July’s pace, UN Food and Agriculture Organization data showed. Drought and conflicts continued to disrupt commodity markets, pushing sugar prices up 11.9% to their highest level since June 2025. Wheat prices were up 15% from a year earlier due in part to disruptions to Black Sea export logistics, while concerns linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz also supported maize prices, which rose 2.5%.

The FAO Sugar Price Index jumped 11.9% in August from the previous month, driven by weaker output prospects in Europe due to adverse weather and El Niño-related concerns in key Asian producers. India’s announcement of duty-free imports of raw sugar also contributed to the rise. Over the same period, FAO indexes for cereals, dairy, vegetable oils and meat also increased, according to the UN agency.

The average U.S. diesel price topped $5.85 a gallon for the first time, setting a record high. A six-month war with Iran has disrupted global fuel flows, pushing Brent crude above $95 a barrel. Diesel averaged about $3.76 a gallon before the war and $3.20 a year earlier. The previous peak was nearly $5.82 in June 2022, driven by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia.

New York raw sugar futures retreated sharply from a 17-month high, falling as much as 4.8% intraday for the biggest drop since May. Prices had surged more than 21% last month after India allowed up to 1 million tons of duty-free raw sugar imports, stoking concerns about tight supply. But softer domestic prices in India have damped expectations for overseas purchases, with Rabobank estimating actual imports at 500,000 to 600,000 tons.

BMI raised its 2026 average coffee price forecast to 307 cents a pound, citing a strengthening El Nino and historically thin inventories. It expects global coffee production to rise 6% to 188.9 million bags in 2026-27, led by Brazil, where output is seen up 14.1% to 71.9 million bags, while Vietnam is forecast to edge up to 31.9 million bags. BMI sees Brazil’s 2027-28 crop slipping 5.1% to 68 million bags, narrowing the global surplus from 14.4 million bags to 9.2 million bags and keeping prices supported.