Grayscale: Bitcoin is no longer mainly driven by the halving cycle

Grayscale argues Bitcoin has shifted into a new market regime in which global liquidity, real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy have become the dominant forces, replacing the traditional four-year halving-driven pattern. The firm said Bitcoin's recent pullback came alongside rising real yields and growing expectations that the Fed may take a more hawkish stance. Grayscale added that if the Fed pauses rate hikes and the U.S. avoids a sharp economic downturn, Bitcoin may already have found a bottom. Some market participants disagree. Proponents of the four-year cycle contend Bitcoin could still fall further, pointing to historical patterns in which cycle lows typically arrive about a year after the market peak and roughly 2.5 years after a halving, with average drawdowns of around 80%.