Fed Decision Looms as Bitcoin Traders Seek Clarity

Crypto markets open the week with their attention fixed on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, as bets on a pause firm up while the threat of a hike at the year's final meeting lingers. The Fed will announce the outcome of its October 27–28 meeting at 9:00 p.m. Turkish time on Wednesday, October 28. Chair Kevin Warsh will take questions from reporters at 9:30 p.m. Odds of a Hold Top 90% CME FedWatch data shows a 90.6% probability that the Fed leaves its policy rate in the 3.75%–4.00% range. A 25 basis point increase to 4.00%–4.25% is priced at 9.4%. No cut is expected. The repricing over the past month has been dramatic. On September 25, a hike at the October meeting carried a 64.2% probability and a hold just 35.8%. Holding is now the overwhelming consensus. The Fed raised rates 25 basis points in September in a unanimous vote, saying in its statement that economic activity remained robust and inflation elevated. This week's focus falls on what message the central bank sends after that move. December Tells a Different Story A pause looks likely in October, but year-end pricing points the other way. FedWatch puts the combined probability of rates sitting above current levels after the December 9 meeting at 74.2% — 67.5% for the 4.00%–4.25% range and 6.7% for 4.25%–4.50%. The probability of rates staying put is 25.8%. Any signal Warsh offers on December will be watched as closely as the decision itself. PIMCO said in an October 22 analysis that it expects a hold at this meeting, but sees the Fed maintaining its hiking bias, with the next step a possible 25 basis point increase in December. The asset manager flagged AI-driven demand, tariffs and energy-related inflation risks as key issues, while noting that rising long-term bond yields are tightening financial conditions and could give the Fed room to maneuver. Warsh's Bitcoin Comments in Focus No fresh economic projections or dot plot will be released this meeting, putting more weight on changes to the decision language, any dissenting votes and Warsh's press conference. For crypto markets, the key question is how firmly another hike stays on the table, particularly for December. Hawkish comments from Warsh could pressure Bitcoin through the dollar and bond yields. A clearer wait-and-see message would lift risk appetite. The agenda does not end with the rate decision. The September personal income and spending report, which includes the PCE inflation gauge the Fed watches closely, lands on Thursday, October 29. *This is not investment advice.