Bitcoin Steadies Around $80,000 as Markets Price Roughly 60% Chance of Sept. 16 Fed Hike

Bitcoin hovered near $79,500 on Monday, holding close to the $80,000 mark as traders revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase. The cryptocurrency briefly topped $82,000 last week before easing back. U.S. labor data reset rate expectations: the economy added 162,000 jobs in August versus forecasts of 55,000, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. Following the report, the implied probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting rose to about 60%. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar moved higher, weighing on bitcoin and other rate-sensitive assets. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger said bitcoin’s post-August rally left momentum in overbought territory, adding that higher Treasury yields and firmer oil prices were additional headwinds. He noted the crypto market has absorbed those pressures without significant technical damage. Flows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs remained supportive, with $987 million in net inflows last week, extending gains in weekly inflows to three consecutive weeks. QCP Capital said daily flow swings reflected traders adjusting exposure and waiting for clearer signals ahead of key U.S. data releases. The firm flagged near-term resistance at $80,000"$82,000 and support at $77,000"$78,000. On-chain indicators also improved. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the 30-day change in realized capitalization turned positive on Aug. 24 after 87 days in negative territory, reaching 0.88% by Sept. 6. Realized capitalization rose $9.36 billion over the period to $1.068 trillion, which Adler said underpins bitcoin’s recovery as price consolidates around $80,000. Investors now focus on the final major inflation reads ahead of the Fed meeting: U.S. producer price data is due Thursday, followed by August CPI on Friday. Headline CPI is expected to hold at 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is seen easing to 2.4%. Capital.com senior financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said a softer core print could strengthen the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, while an upside surprise could put a hike back on the table.