U.S. mortgage rates are starting the week just shy of 7%, with higher Treasury yields and a surprisingly strong August jobs report complicating the outlook for the Federal Reserve's next policy move. With U.S. fixed-income markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 7, the most recent broad readings are those published ahead of the holiday weekend. Mortgage News Daily's index put the average top-tier 30-year fixed rate at 6.89% on Friday, Sept. 4, up one basis point from Thursday and near the 6.91% level reached Wednesday. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.49%, and the jumbo rate came in at 7.06%. Different surveys produce different numbers due to varying methodologies and collection windows. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.71% as of Sept. 3, up from 6.66% the prior week and 6.50% a year earlier. The 15-year rate increased to 6.04% from 5.98%. The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey put the 30-year contract rate at 6.79%, edging up from 6.78%. Across measures, the direction over the past year is clear. Rates slid toward the 6% area around March before reversing sharply. Since then, all three major gauges have moved higher, with Mortgage News Daily's faster-moving daily series now closest to 7%. Even small increases matter for affordability, as monthly payments can rise meaningfully on large loan balances. Treasury yields remain the main driver. Mortgage rates tend to track Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities more closely than the Fed's overnight policy rate. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday near 4.79% after touching roughly 4.81% during the session. TradingView data showed the 10-year yield around 4.784%, above its 50-day exponential moving average near 4.645%, with the relative strength index near 60, pointing to positive momentum without an extreme overbought signal. The broader trend since spring has been a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. As long as the 10-year yield stays elevated in the 4.7%–4.8% range, sustained mortgage-rate relief may be hard to achieve. Friday's employment report added to the pressure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, well above the recent pace, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. The data lifted yields and boosted expectations that the Fed could raise rates at its Sept. 15–16 meeting. After Friday's trading, futures markets implied about a 57% chance of a September hike, Reuters reported. The Fed has kept its federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, and at its July meeting three policymakers backed a quarter-point increase. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week that continued progress on inflation could support holding rates steady, though a hotter August inflation reading could make a hike appropriate. That puts this week's inflation reports in focus. The August Producer Price Index is due Thursday, Sept. 10, followed by the Consumer Price Index on Friday, Sept. 11. Softer inflation could pull Treasury yields lower and give mortgage rates some breathing room. A hotter print could reinforce expectations for another Fed move and push 30-year mortgage rates more decisively toward, or above, 7%. Borrower activity has not vanished. MBA data showed total mortgage applications rose 0.8% in the week ended Aug. 28, with purchase applications up 2%. Refinancing fell 1% and remained 19% below year-ago levels. Adjustable-rate mortgages are also drawing more interest: the ARM share rose to 8%, the highest in five weeks, as MBA's average adjustable rate declined to 5.94%. For day-to-day rate direction, the key variable remains the 10-year Treasury yield. Until bond yields retreat convincingly, the pressure keeping 30-year borrowing costs near 7% is likely to persist.