US President Donald Trump signed an executive order shortly after taking office directing the establishment of a National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by March 2025. No formal moves toward a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve have been announced since, though the administration now appears poised to provide an update. Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the White House Digital Assets Advisory Council, said at the "Bitcoin 2026" conference in Las Vegas that work is underway to implement and reinforce Trump's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve initiative. Speaking at the event, Witt said a major announcement is expected in the coming weeks, adding that the team is defining the mechanisms needed to safeguard digital assets such as Bitcoin carried on the state balance sheet. Witt also indicated that progress on the initiative could be followed by legal and regulatory steps, and said the administration expects to take a significant executive action in the near term. The executive order envisions a reserve backed by Bitcoin and other digital assets seized by the government through criminal or civil proceedings. The plan targets roughly 200,000 BTC obtained via enforcement actions for use as a national reserve asset. This is not investment advice.

CoinDesk calls April 29 the year's busiest trading day, with three market-moving events packed into a single session. At 10:00 a.m. local time, the Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination as Jerome Powell's successor. At 2:00 p.m., the Federal Open Market Committee releases its policy statement—Powell's last as Fed chair. After the close, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon report first-quarter results. Positioning going in is distinctly optimistic. CME FedWatch implies near-100% odds the Fed holds rates steady. The Nasdaq ended last week at a record high. About 82% of companies reporting this season have beaten expectations. The risk is that all three pillars lean on the same assumption: the Fed can keep "looking through" $108 oil and leave the rate path intact, allowing big-tech valuations—around 25x forward earnings—to hold. A hawkish tilt from Powell, or a visible crack in any major tech print, could force a rapid repricing. Powell's final message Powell's legacy largely hinges on one point: protecting the Fed's policy independence through the most difficult inflation stretch in decades. Any sign in his farewell statement that he is bending to markets or politics would be judged more harshly than a typical policy error. The optics matter even more with the Senate advancing his successor the same day. After his Capitol Hill testimony, Powell said he would "maintain independence" and would not serve as Trump's "megaphone." Those lines will be read alongside the successor process, leaving little room for him to appear soft. This is the April meeting with no new dot plot and no updated economic projections, concentrating the signal into statement language and the press conference Q&A. With Brent crude near $108, investors will focus on how Powell frames oil-driven inflation risk. The March statement noted that "the impact of the Middle East situation remains uncertain," language that could be strengthened. Markets are less interested in whether cuts are coming soon than in whether Powell labels higher energy prices a "temporary supply shock" or stresses that "upside inflation risks persist." The 2-year Treasury yield is likely to deliver the quickest verdict. AI spending meets an earnings test Over the past two years, the "Mag 7" story has been straightforward: spend aggressively on AI infrastructure and ask investors to wait for payoff. This round of results begins to test that narrative in real time. Combined AI-related capital spending by Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon has now topped $300 billion. The market's checklist has been consistent—earnings first, cloud growth next, monetization proof last. With results arriving, the key question is how much of that spend is turning into revenue. Many near-term beats are already expected and largely priced in. What will move the stocks is forward guidance and the tone of commentary on future spending and payback timelines. Where the earnings call risk concentrates The four-company cluster does not distribute risk evenly. Microsoft is likely to take the first and hardest look. Azure growth expectations sit around 38%. Simply meeting that number may not satisfy investors; they want tangible revenue contribution from Copilot for enterprise as the clearest validation of Microsoft's two-year AI thesis. Q2 guidance below 36% would read as negative; above 40% would qualify as a genuine upside surprise. Alphabet faces a different challenge. Google Cloud is expected to grow 49.6%, the most demanding growth bar among the group, while Gemini's commercialization has not yet produced clear financial disclosure. The market is looking for monetization evidence in dollars, not product demos. A cloud beat without a convincing Gemini revenue signal could land softer than bulls hope. Amazon must defend momentum at AWS. Last quarter AWS grew 24% and AI services were running at more than $15 billion in annualized revenue. A growth rate slipping below 20% would likely become one of the season's key sentiment inflection points. Meta appears to carry the most "dangerous" call risk. The room to maneuver on revenue and EPS is limited, leaving the spotlight on its $135 billion annual capex plan. Mark Zuckerberg is effectively required to re-justify that spend each quarter: it is necessary, the return path is visible, and the timeline is credible. Any language implying the company is "continuously evaluating based on market feedback" could be read as wavering. In recent quarters, even slight hesitation on capex wording has triggered weak after-hours reactions. The one-company miss problem With four megacaps reporting the same day, investors also face an untested setup: if one name disappoints, does strength from the other three offset it, or does the miss expand into a broader challenge to the AI investment narrative? That divergence risk does not appear fully priced. A tight timeline, thin hedges The day's information flow is sequential. At 2:00 p.m., the statement hits first, and the 2-year Treasury will act as the fastest thermometer, with an initial market verdict likely within minutes. At 2:30 p.m., Powell's press conference becomes the densest information window, with markets parsing whether he emphasizes "upside inflation risks" or "transitory supply shocks." After the close, attention shifts quickly to Microsoft's Azure Q2 guidance and Meta's capex commentary—arguably the most surprise-prone moments of the earnings season. With the VIX near 18, options protection looks thin. Any negative catalyst could accelerate drawdowns. The highest-risk scenario is a hawkish Powell layered with weak guidance from any one of the Mag 7. If both the Fed and AI narratives wobble at once, the reaction could be sharper than either shock on its own—because it would signal that today's optimism rests on a narrowing foundation.

Block, the financial technology company led by Jack Dorsey, said it held $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin in its first-quarter proof-of-reserves report.

CoinDesk reported that Aave's DeFi United relief fund has secured $303 million to cover losses tied to the Kelp DAO vulnerability, which created a $292 million hole. By fully backstopping the shortfall, the raise could reduce forced selling pressure across impacted DeFi protocols. Polymarket pricing was unchanged after the announcement: the market for Ethereum reaching $10,000 by December 31, 2026 still implies a 4% "Yes" probability. The contract remains illiquid, with $694 in daily volume by face value but only $28 of USDC actually traded. A five-point move would require about $1,022, making the odds highly sensitive to a single large order rather than broader sentiment. The relief effort is backed by donors including Lido and Consensys, signaling that major DeFi players are prepared to socialize losses from the attack. Even so, the commitment has not translated into a measurable price response and is viewed more as a stabilizer for affected protocols than a catalyst for ETH. In the Polymarket contract, "Yes" shares trade at $0.04 and pay $1 if ETH hits $10,000 by 2026, implying a 25x payoff. Achieving that outcome likely requires more than a one-off bailout; it would take sustained institutional inflows or a meaningful shift in monetary policy. Market participants are watching governance votes on how funds will be distributed, along with any public comments from Aave, Vitalik Buterin, and other key figures, with execution details seen as more important than headline size.

The Federal Reserve will announce its April rate decision tomorrow, with markets treating the outcome as largely settled. Futures and prediction markets are pricing in an almost 100% chance the Fed keeps the target range unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%. Attention is expected to center on Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, his final public appearance before his term ends on May 15, 2026. Investors will parse his language for any indication of when the Fed could begin easing, whether inflation remains the dominant concern, and how global tensions and oil prices factor into the outlook. The case for staying on hold remains intact. Inflation is still running above the Fed's 2% goal, and the latest CPI data showed annual inflation rising to 3.3% in March, the highest level since 2024, amid geopolitical instability and higher energy costs. While job growth has cooled, unemployment remains low and overall growth is still positive. If the Fed holds, it would mark a third consecutive pause in 2026. Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have faded in recent weeks. Markets that earlier leaned toward two to three cuts now generally point to zero or one, contingent on incoming inflation data. Some major banks, including J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, continue to forecast one or two cuts later in 2026. Crypto traders are also watching closely. Bitcoin has tended to react more to expectations than to the rate decision itself, and even a dovish message can trigger a selloff if it's already priced in. Bitcoin was last trading near $76,532 and is testing a key $79,000–$83,000 range; a breakout could open a move toward $90,000. Softer Fed signals or cooler inflation readings could support further gains, while stronger data could drive a short-term pullback. President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell once his term expires.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday proposed a rule change that could significantly simplify the path for exchange listings of crypto investment products holding XRP alongside Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). The proposal introduces an \u002285/15\u0022 framework that would allow multi-asset crypto trusts to qualify for listing without requiring an exchange to seek separate SEC approval for each individual product. The filing explicitly identifies XRP as an eligible commodity under the new approach. At the center of the proposal is Rule 8.201E, which sets the standards for listing commodity-based trust shares on NYSE Arca. Under current practice, each asset held by a trust must independently satisfy eligibility requirements. The proposed change would remove that asset-by-asset hurdle and instead require that at least 85% of a trust\u0027s net asset value be invested in qualifying assets, while up to 15% could be allocated to assets that do not meet the standard. The filing names BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP as assets that already qualify. It says each meets two criteria: each underlies a futures contract that has traded on a regulated market for at least six months, and an ETF exists that provides at least 40% economic exposure to each asset. To demonstrate how the standard would work, NYSE Arca cited a hypothetical trust holding $95 million in BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP, plus $5 million in other digital assets that do not meet the eligibility requirements. With qualifying assets comprising 95% of the portfolio, the trust would meet the proposed listing threshold. Nasdaq has submitted a substantially similar filing under SRNASDAQ2026032. NYSE Arca also pointed to earlier SEC approvals as precedent, citing the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund and Bitwise\u0027s 10 Crypto Index ETF, both cleared under a comparable 85% standard. The proposal also seeks to exclude non-fungible assets and collectibles from the definition of eligible commodities, arguing such items were not contemplated when the original generic listing standards were established. Once the proposal is published in the Federal Register, the SEC will have up to 45 days to act, with the option to extend the review period to 90 days. In the market, XRP was trading around $1.39 at the time of writing, down about 2% over 24 hours and 3% over the past week. The token is up 4.4% over the last month, but remains nearly 40% below its level a year ago and more than 61% below its all-time high of $3.65 reached in July 2025. ETF activity has been stronger. Spot XRP ETFs have set a new record for cumulative net inflows at $1.29 billion, the highest level since their launch in mid-November 2025.

Markets are pricing a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve keeps its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. The FOMC decision is due tomorrow. What's your take?

Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a nine-day streak ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, as Bitcoin hovered around $77,000 and traders gauged whether the market can hold that level.

HuoXing Finance cited Hyperinsight monitoring showing that the largest on-chain long position associated with BIT—often described as a "BIT-affiliated whale"—has slipped back into the red. The address is currently sitting on an unrealized loss of about $110,000, roughly 5%. The wallet holds a 20x leveraged ETH long of 20,000 ETH, worth about $45.6 million, with an average entry price of $2,287. The position was opened on April 20 and once recorded an unrealized profit peak of $2 million, but the subsequent pullback has wiped out those gains. The address is said to belong to the digital financial services group BIT and has repeatedly received transfers from affiliated entities. It has previously placed ETH long positions worth several hundred million dollars. Address: 0x6c8512516ce5669d35113a11ca8b8de322fd84f6.