Fed lifts 2026 rate median to 3.8%, with nine officials seeing at least one hike in 2026
The Federal Reserve’s latest projections lifted the median policy-rate estimate for end-2026 to 3.8%, with nine officials penciling in at least one hike this year and markets pricing 72% odds of a move by October. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a 16-month high and the dollar strengthened. The report says a higher-rate backdrop typically weighs on emerging-market assets and notes that surging crude oil—once as high as $125 a barrel—has already battered Indian equities. It adds that oil has eased on expectations of a U.S.–Iran peace deal, but a more hawkish Fed undermines the pricing base for commodities.
