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Slow Brazil harvest and tight supplies lift arabica and robusta coffee futures

AI Market Summary
Coffee futures strengthened as Brazil's harvest progress lags last year and the 5-year average, tightening near-term supply while Minas Gerais rainfall remains far below normal. ICE arabica inventories sliding to multi-year lows adds support, and Colombia's earthquake-related logistics disruptions plus El Niño risks elevate production uncertainty. Offsetting factors include higher robusta inventories, strong Vietnam exports, and USDA forecasts for record 2026/27 global output.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT+5.42%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Brazil’s coffee harvest has continued to lag, with overall completion by mid-August running below both last year and the five-year average; arabica harvest progress is at 86%, well behind 95% a year earlier. Rainfall in Minas Gerais, the main producing state, has been just 11% of the historical average, adding to supply concerns. Arabica and robusta coffee futures have climbed sharply on the tighter supply backdrop.
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