Economists see Fed holding rates steady through 2026, pushing back on market pricing for two hikes

Most economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2026, contrary to market pricing for two rate increases, according to a Reuters poll. Inflation is running above 4%, well above the Fed’s 2% target, with President Donald Trump’s broad import tariffs adding to price pressures. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has put restoring inflation to 2% at the center of the central bank’s priorities, with less emphasis on the labor market and a move toward less explicit forward guidance.