Strong El Nino and Indonesia’s B50 mandate lift 2026–2027 CPO price risks, RHB keeps RM4,400/tonne call
AI Market Summary
A strong/very strong El Nino (97% probability) is expected to cut Malaysia's palm fruit output from 4Q26, while Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate could absorb ~18mt of CPO annually, tightening global edible oil supply. The report frames prices as increasingly policy- and weather-driven, with lagged production impacts potentially amplifying 2027 supply stress. This supports a firmer near-term risk tone for agricultural commodities tied to vegetable oils.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOTTON2USD/USDT+0.22%
AI Insight · NCCOCOTTON2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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A strong El Nino event, with a 97% chance of occurring between October 2024 and January 2027, is expected to cut Malaysia’s palm fruit output by 2% to 4% from the fourth quarter of 2026. At the same time, Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel policy is expected to consume 18 million tonnes of CPO a year, tightening global supply. RHB Research maintained its 2026 average CPO price forecast of RM4,400 per tonne and flagged significant upside risk for 2027, while keeping an “overweight” view on the plantation sector, according to its report.
