In the final network recalibration of 2025, Bitcoin's mining difficulty was set at 148.2 trillion, up from 109.8 trillion on January 1, 2025. This roughly 35% yearly increase underscores rising competition among miners and sustained investment in more efficient hardware, even as Bitcoin's price has fluctuated.

Bitcoin recently pulled back from a cycle peak near $125,000 and is now trading around $88,000 after briefly exceeding $90,000, while gold and silver are advancing to fresh highs. The article attributes this divergence to a recurring market pattern in which capital first flows into defensive assets like precious metals before rotating into higher-risk assets such as crypto. Technical indicators such as RSI in the mid-40s, easing volume, and a recovering MACD suggest consolidation rather than a breakdown, with some prior cycles showing strong Bitcoin rallies after metals lose momentum.

Bitcoin is trading around $90,000 near year-end, with the latest price at $87,815 and a year-to-date decline of over 6%. Major institutions and analysts have issued diverging outlooks through 2026, with projections ranging from a possible downside to $25,000 to long-term targets as high as $500,000. These scenarios reflect differing views on Bitcoin’s role versus gold, regulatory conditions, ETF inflows, and potential boom-and-bust cycle dynamics.

At the start of the final week of 2025, Bitcoin failed to establish $90,000 as support while trading around $88,037 and closing in on the yearly candle. Derivatives data showed elevated volatility after a $24 billion options expiry, onchain metrics highlighted key realized price levels near $99,785, and Bitfinex whales pushed BTC long positions to their highest level in nearly two years as they position for 2026. Traditional markets and precious metals hit fresh highs while crypto lagged, but whale spot activity and large order sizes suggested accumulating demand, even as Bitcoin’s nearly 40% pullback from its $126,200 all-time high kept sentiment cautious.

Market commentators say a sharp divide has emerged between Bitcoin supporters and precious metals advocates after a year of strong moves for both sides, with Bitcoin’s long-term returns contrasted against gold and silver’s powerful rally. Analyst Adam Livingston cites roughly 27,700% gains for Bitcoin since 2015, versus about 400% for silver and 280% for gold, while critics such as Peter Schiff argue that shorter timeframes tell a different story. Other analysts highlight how macro factors, a weaker US dollar and expectations of Fed easing in 2026 are driving all three assets, suggesting Bitcoin does not need gold or silver to slow before it can rise again.

According to Axel Adler Jr., three months of on-chain data show that Bitcoin's realized losses have dropped from a 7-day average of $2.4B in late November to $0.5B, an 80% reduction from capitulation levels. November 21–22 saw z-scores as high as 8.7–10.9 and daily losses above $5B, while later spikes with z-score near 1–2 are framed as normal volatility rather than renewed distress. Net realized profit/loss remains negative but is trending toward the zero line, which the analysis views as a condition for a potential local recovery if new demand appears.

On 29 December 2025 at 10:15, a fresh bearish debate on Bitcoin drew attention. According to Mike McGlone's online post on December 28, 2025, the post-2020 rally was liquidity-driven, with $50,000 seen as a transition rather than safety and $10,000 cited as a possible anchor. He frames deflation risk as a key headwind for risk assets.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on the Tetragrammaton podcast with Rick Rubin that Bitcoin pressures US policymakers to maintain fiscal discipline and can bolster the dollar’s long-term standing. He warned that inflation exceeding growth risks reserve currency status, noting rising debt is pushing some investors toward Bitcoin and gold.