Wintermute: Bitcoin's Surge Looks Like a Relief Bounce, Not the Start of a New Bull Market

July 7 (BlockBeats) — Market maker Wintermute said the latest rally in risk assets was sparked by a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller that markets read as dovish, lifting global risk sentiment with crypto leading the gains. Wintermute noted that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently outperformed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq by a wide margin. In Bitcoin's case, the move is being supported by firmer fundamentals: continued whale accumulation, supportive options-market funding flows, and improving on-chain indicators. Sentiment also improved after net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs stopped. A cooling U.S. labor market has further lowered expectations for additional rate hikes this year. At the Sintra Forum, Waugh reiterated the 2% inflation target without signaling a more hawkish tilt, which investors interpreted as a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy. On-chain data show whale wallets accumulated more than 270,000 BTC around the 200-week moving average. In the options market, positioning has rotated from defensive hedges to call buying, with strike prices concentrated between $60,000 and $70,000. Ethereum's advance has been driven more by institutional narratives, including the official launch of Ethereum Institutional and ongoing progress in tokenization infrastructure for institutions. Wintermute added that fundamentals remain under pressure, citing reported Ethereum Foundation layoffs of roughly 20%, a 40% budget cut, and earlier outflows from ETH ETFs. Overall, Wintermute characterized the move as a relief rebound rather than the beginning of a new long-term bull market. It pointed to improved macro conditions, easing tensions in the Middle East, continued institutional adoption of Ethereum, and thin summer liquidity as key forces behind the recovery. From a flow perspective, the firm cautioned that cumulative net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs remain sizable at about $2.73 billion this year. Until ETF flows improve in a sustained way and establish a clear trend, Wintermute said the rally should be treated as an emotion-driven bounce rather than a structural reversal, warranting caution on the outlook.