US Core CPI Tops Expectations in August 2026

US consumer inflation accelerated in August, with underlying price pressures coming in hotter than economists had projected. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Sept. 11, 2026, matching the Dow Jones consensus for the headline figure. Core CPI—excluding food and energy—advanced 0.3%, above forecasts for a 0.2% gain. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was 3.4% and core inflation stood at 2.4%. Core inflation eased slightly from July's 2.5% annual rate, but the firmer monthly print raises questions about whether the disinflation trend the Federal Reserve has been counting on is starting to cool off. Energy drove much of August's move. Energy prices climbed 2.1% on the month, led by a 3.9% jump in gasoline. Gasoline alone contributed more than one-third of the overall headline increase. Food prices were little changed, up 0.1% month over month. Shelter costs—one of the most closely watched and persistent components—continued to edge higher at a moderate pace. Ahead of the release, FactSet's median estimate called for 3.3% year-over-year headline CPI and 2.4% core CPI. The headline reading exceeded that projection by 0.1 percentage point. July's headline CPI had risen a subdued 0.1% month over month. The report arrives at a sensitive moment for policy. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week, and this is among the last major data releases officials will review before deciding on interest rates. Shelter inflation remains a key sticking point. While real-time rent measures have signaled cooling for months, the BLS approach reflects those shifts with a meaningful lag. Energy adds uncertainty as well. Gasoline prices are volatile and can swing with refinery maintenance, geopolitical supply risks, and seasonal demand. August's 3.9% surge could reverse as soon as September.