OMFIF Survey: Central Banks Signal First-Ever Net Plans to Trim US Dollar Reserves

Central banks are indicating a historic shift in reserve-management intentions. In OMFIF's latest Global Public Investor survey, more respondents say they expect to reduce US dollar holdings over the next decade than increase them—the first time the survey has shown a net negative tilt toward the world's dominant reserve currency. The results, released June 30, reflect feedback from 90 institutions overseeing more than $10 trillion in assets. Gold is regaining prominence as the preferred safe-haven asset. A total of 82% of surveyed central banks report holding physical gold, up from 71% a year earlier. On a net basis, 30% plan to raise gold allocations over the next one to two years. Geopolitical risk is the main driver: 51% of respondents cite it as their primary motivation. Price expectations are also elevated. Some 61% of respondents expect gold to trade at $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce by June 2027. The survey points to growing acceptance of a more fragmented global monetary order. The US dollar still accounts for roughly 58% of global reserves, but 79% of surveyed central banks expect the system to evolve from unipolar to multipolar. The euro stands out as a potential beneficiary, with a net 29% of central banks indicating longer-term plans to increase euro allocations. Beyond asset allocation, the report highlights technology adoption. More than two-thirds of central banks say they plan to expand the use of artificial intelligence in their investment strategies. Cryptoassets, by contrast, are absent from the reserve discussion. Despite the search for diversification away from the dominant reserve currency, the survey offers no specific indication that central banks view digital assets as a credible reserve alternative. For investors, the implications center on gold and FX dynamics. Gold market participants will be watching the $5,000–$6,000 per ounce target that a majority of institutions see by mid-2027. Currency markets may face a more complicated path: the dollar's 58% reserve share provides a substantial buffer against abrupt erosion, yet the survey suggests a clear directional shift in institutional preferences. Many respondents also describe today's volatility as a persistent feature rather than a temporary dislocation.