Grayscale: Bitcoin is no longer mainly driven by the halving cycle
AI Market Summary
Grayscale argues Bitcoin is shifting from a halving-driven framework toward macro sensitivity, with global liquidity, real yields, and Fed policy now key drivers. The note links BTC’s pullback to higher real rates and a more hawkish policy outlook, while suggesting stabilization is possible if tightening pauses and growth holds. Ongoing debate with four-year cycle proponents underscores elevated uncertainty around regime interpretation.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
BTC/USDT-1.15%
AI Insight · BTC/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Grayscale argues Bitcoin has shifted into a new market regime in which global liquidity, real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy have become the dominant forces, replacing the traditional four-year halving-driven pattern.
The firm said Bitcoin's recent pullback came alongside rising real yields and growing expectations that the Fed may take a more hawkish stance. Grayscale added that if the Fed pauses rate hikes and the U.S. avoids a sharp economic downturn, Bitcoin may already have found a bottom.
Some market participants disagree. Proponents of the four-year cycle contend Bitcoin could still fall further, pointing to historical patterns in which cycle lows typically arrive about a year after the market peak and roughly 2.5 years after a halving, with average drawdowns of around 80%.
