Bitcoin Holds Above $63,000, Faces $64,000 Ceiling Ahead of Fed Minutes

Bitcoin is consolidating just above $63,000 after last week's rebound, with sellers still defending the $64,000 area, according to CoinMarketCap. Markets are leaning toward additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, but sentiment has turned more cautious as higher oil prices and renewed Middle East shipping risks add fresh uncertainty. ETF flows have offered support. Softer U.S. employment data boosted expectations for easier policy, helping risk assets broadly. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also posted net inflows for two straight sessions, snapping a lengthy stretch of outflows and signaling some institutional demand returning. Corporate activity has added volatility. Strategy previously reported an $8.32 billion second-quarter loss on its Bitcoin holdings and disclosed the sale of 3,588 BTC. After that update, Bitcoin briefly slid to around $61,000, triggering about $500 million in leveraged long liquidations over 24 hours before rebounding above $63,000. Technically, resistance is concentrated in the $64,000–$65,000 zone. While price has bounced decisively from the $58,000 level, it has yet to reclaim $65,000 and remains below the 50-day moving average near $65,800, suggesting overhead selling pressure persists. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading above several short-term moving averages, with support developing between $61,500 and $63,000. The Relative Strength Index is showing bearish divergence, pointing to fading momentum as price makes new highs. Liquidation data indicate short liquidations cluster between $64,500 and $66,000, while long liquidations are concentrated between $61,000 and $61,500—a setup that could amplify volatility if price breaks the current range. Some analysts see the upcoming Fed meeting minutes as a near-term catalyst. A move back above $64,000 could open the door to renewed tests of higher resistance. A break below the $60,700–$61,000 support band could bring stronger downside pressure. Macro risks remain in focus. Crude oil has climbed above $69 per barrel amid renewed concerns over shipping security near the Strait of Hormuz. If energy prices stay elevated, inflation expectations could firm and weaken the market's conviction in rapid Fed easing. For now, Bitcoin's short-term direction reflects a tug-of-war: ETF inflows and rate-cut expectations on one side, and oil-driven inflation risk, geopolitics, and technical resistance on the other. The Fed minutes and whether Bitcoin can clear $64,000–$65,000 remain key near-term watch points.