BTC Breaks Above $64,000 as ETH Nears $1,800, Fueled by Short Covering and Fresh ETF Inflows

Join the meeting via the link. Hello everyone, this is Professor Pao. I'll be live tonight at 8 PM to break down the overnight upside surprise and what it could mean for positioning into the rest of the week. BTC: An aggressive bid overnight drove Bitcoin through the key $63,000 resistance. Around 6 AM this morning, BTC printed a 14-day high at $64,729. Price is now digesting gains in the $63,000–$63,500 area, up about 0.4% over the past 24 hours. Today's range has been $62,400–$64,700. Key levels: - Upside resistance: $64,000–$64,700 (clustered profit-taking zone and today's high). A clean break could open $65,500–$66,000. - Downside support: $63,000–$62,500 (post-breakout retest/confirmation zone). ETH: Ether tracked the move, climbing from $1,728 to $1,833 over 24 hours. It reached a 14-day high of $1,813 this morning and is currently consolidating between $1,770 and $1,800. Key levels: - Upside resistance: $1,800–$1,830. A breakout could target $1,880–$1,900. - Downside support: $1,750–$1,770. Three forces behind the rally 1) Short squeeze dynamics: The bounce has been led by short covering. Over July 4–5, about 95% of liquidations came from short-term shorts. Forced buy-ins lifted prices, and subsequent short closures added more passive buying — a textbook short squeeze. BTC has advanced for three straight sessions, rising from $58,625 to $64,042 (about +9.5% cumulatively). Even so, the Fear & Greed Index is only 27, still in "fear", suggesting positioning pressure has been a bigger driver than broad risk-on sentiment. 2) ETF flow improvement: U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have posted five consecutive sessions of net inflows, snapping a 10-day run of outflows. Yesterday's combined net inflow totaled $266 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $209 million in single-day inflows. Institutional flow has shifted from persistent selling to steadier buying. Keep in mind, June still recorded a record monthly net outflow of $4.06 billion for Bitcoin ETFs, so the current stabilization looks more like early-stage repair than a confirmed trend reversal. 3) Macro repricing: The roughly 10% climb since July 1 has been supported by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts. Recent U.S. employment data showed just 57,000 new jobs, well below forecasts, lifting the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the September meeting to 72%. In addition, Trump's public comments about earning billions from crypto have added fuel to the narrative of crypto's political visibility and broader mainstream adoption. Tonight's live session will focus on execution for the rest of the week: what to do if BTC clears $64,700, and how to approach entries on a pullback into $62,500–$63,000. I'll walk through specific order levels and stop-loss placement live. See you at 8 PM. After an upside surprise like this, the key question is follow-through. Define your plan before taking action. Disclaimer: The above reflects the author's personal views, provided to help investors understand market information. It is not investment advice and does not represent the official position or views of AiCoin. Markets involve risk; invest cautiously.