Crypto-related U.S. equities rallied after the U.S. stock market close, with Circle (CRCL) up 6.24% and Bitmine gaining 8.29%. Strategy (MSTR) was roughly flat amid renewed headlines about "selling coins." Bitcoin also strengthened, rising from around $62,000 and briefly nearing $65,000. The catalyst was once again U.S. President Donald Trump, whose off-the-cuff remarks have repeatedly moved risk assets. 1) One vague line, broad reaction With the official rollout of "Trump Accounts," risk appetite tied to expectations of a longer-running U.S. equity bull market resurfaced. Asked whether the Trump Accounts could eventually include bitcoin, Trump replied: "May occur." The comment contained no policy detail or commitment, yet it was enough to lift bitcoin and crypto-linked stocks in short order. The move underscores how sensitively markets respond to any hint of official recognition for cryptocurrencies. The open question is durability: sentiment-driven rallies can fade as quickly as they appear. 2) On-chain flows suggest fresh money hasn't followed Price strength does not necessarily mean new capital is arriving. Glassnode on-chain data shows bitcoin fund flows over the past 30 days remain net outflows. The uptick appears driven more by repositioning of existing capital and short covering than by sustained, long-term accumulation. That distinction matters. Rallies backed by meaningful inflows tend to be healthier and more persistent than those sparked mainly by headlines and sentiment. 3) Cycle watch: MVRV not at classic bottom signal Another indicator to monitor is MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), a commonly used crypto cycle gauge comparing bitcoin's market value with its realized value (the average price at which coins last moved). Historically, MVRV falling below 1 has coincided with major bear-market lows. Last Tuesday, bitcoin's MVRV briefly dipped to about 1.1, its lowest level this year, suggesting prices approached but did not enter the traditional "below 1" bottom zone. Following the rebound, MVRV has moved back to around 1.2. Whether the latest bounce is a bear-market recovery phase or the start of a broader reversal remains unclear. A drop below 1 would be a stronger historical bottom signal, but it has not occurred. 4) From headline risk to a market feature A broader takeaway is that "remarks driving rallies" are becoming more embedded in market pricing. The introduction of "Trump Accounts" is described as a rare instance of a White House-linked policy tool being framed in a way that markets interpret as directly supportive of U.S. equities, connecting government support, newborn benefits, the S&P 500, and broader stock-market performance in a single narrative. Against that backdrop, even a hint that crypto could be included adds another layer of headline-driven optionality. For retail investors, this is less a signal to blindly chase moves and more a reminder of liquidity risk: when prices are being pushed by narratives and high-level soundbites, late buyers can end up providing the exit. 5) Bottom line Trump's "it could happen" comment helped push bitcoin close to $65,000 overnight, a move that is both attention-grabbing and risky. With on-chain flows still weak and cycle signals mixed, uncertainty remains elevated. The BIT platform says it offers trading access to cryptocurrencies such as BTC and crypto-linked equities including CRCL and MSTR, with 24/7 USDT deposits and near-instant settlement to respond to volatility. Disclaimer: This article is a guest contribution by an external author. All market observations, data analysis, and opinions expressed are the author's own and do not represent the official position or research of the BIT platform, nor do they constitute investment advice or a solicitation. BIT makes no express or implied warranties regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content. Prices and data are as of publication and may change due to market fluctuations. Cryptocurrencies and related securities are highly volatile, and investing involves the risk of losing principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should make independent decisions and consult an independent professional adviser when necessary.

The yen has drifted toward 162 per dollar, keeping Japan's currency near its weakest territory since the mid-1980s and putting official tolerance levels back in focus. Japan's Finance Minister Kogure reiterated that the government stands ready to act against excessive moves, as markets weigh the impact of intervention against the larger driver: the diverging policy paths of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. CFTC data underscore how one-sided positioning has become. As of June 30, leveraged traders' net short yen exposure in futures and options approached 138,000 contracts, the largest since 2007. The scale signals a powerful trend anchored in carry trades, but it also makes the market more vulnerable to abrupt reversals if policy surprises or official action forces crowded shorts to cover. This episode is no longer just a simple "strong dollar, weak yen" trade. Even when the dollar softens briefly, the yen has shown limited relief, suggesting investors are repricing Japan's domestic rate outlook, capital flows, and policy credibility. The key question for markets is shifting away from whether a particular level holds, toward whether authorities can disrupt carry-trade dynamics enough to unwind a crowded short. Rate differentials remain at the core. The BOJ raised its short-term policy rate to 1.0% in June, but funding costs in Japan still sit well below those in the United States and other major markets, leaving the carry incentive intact. Borrowing in low-yielding yen to buy higher-yielding assets can generate both interest-rate pickup and, if the yen keeps weakening, additional FX gains—a feedback loop that can reinforce depreciation. Around 162 has become a sensitive zone. It is not a hard line, but it sits close to multi-decade lows and overlaps with memories of Japan's past large-scale interventions, making it both a checkpoint for trend continuation and a higher-risk area for policy pushback. Positioning: 138,000 shorts mark a crowded trade The June 30 CFTC reading shows large institutions are still leaning into further yen weakness. The figure reflects conviction that the interest-rate gap and carry economics remain favorable. At the same time, crowded shorts increase sensitivity to catalysts such as direct FX intervention, a more hawkish BOJ message, or a shift in Fed expectations, any of which could trigger clustered stop-losses. The positioning extreme is not, by itself, a signal of an imminent V-shaped rebound. It is better read as evidence that the market continues to follow carry-trade logic—and that the trade is increasingly susceptible to abrupt disruption from policy signals. Intervention can jolt the market, but rarely flips the trend on its own Japan has already shown willingness to act. Ministry of Finance data show that between April 28 and May 27, authorities deployed 11.73 trillion yen in FX intervention. The move was sizable, yet pressure on the yen returned soon after. In practice, intervention tends to raise the cost and risk of holding shorts rather than permanently changing the direction of the exchange rate. Buying yen and selling dollars can force a sharp short-term pullback; verbal warnings can damp speculation temporarily. Without a change in underlying rate differentials and capital flows, markets often drift back to retest levels that officials are trying to defend. For traders, the setup has become asymmetric. Shorting yen still benefits from carry, but the nearer the market gets to extremes, the higher the risk of sudden official action. Going long yen offers short-squeeze potential, yet without a policy shift it can amount to a bet on a temporary bounce. Yen weakness is spilling into bonds and broader cross-asset pricing The yen's decline is not confined to FX. Japan's 10-year government bond yield has recently risen to around 2.8% and remains above 2.7%, and the combination of higher domestic yields and a weaker currency is drawing more scrutiny from global bond investors. Markets are watching for a potential feedback loop. Japanese long-term investors have historically been major buyers of overseas bonds. If domestic yields rise, foreign bonds become less attractive; if the yen keeps weakening, hedging costs and FX-loss risk can further reshape allocations. That could mean less steady demand for assets such as U.S. Treasuries, UK Gilts, and German Bunds, adding marginal upward pressure to developed-market yields. The yen is increasingly a cross-asset variable, not just an FX one. Regional spillovers are also in view. A weaker yen can erode the export competitiveness of economies such as South Korea and Thailand, potentially nudging regional central banks to put more weight on currency stability. For investors, that translates into higher sensitivity across Asian FX and global yield markets. What will change the trade The market focus is less about guessing the exact day Japan intervenes and more about what could alter shorts' profit structure. Another Ministry of Finance intervention could push USD/JPY lower quickly, but durability will be judged by how fast the pair retraces: if it rebounds to prior levels within days or weeks, traders are likely to treat intervention as volatility, not a regime shift. The more decisive variable is the BOJ. The carry rationale weakens only if the central bank signals a faster hiking path, less accommodation, or greater tolerance for higher short-term rates. If policy remains gradual, shorts may return after pullbacks. Positioning will be a key tell. A meaningful decline in leveraged funds' net shorts would indicate the crowded trade is cooling and short-squeeze risk is being released. If positioning continues to build while USD/JPY stays near 162, market fragility increases. The broader trend remains intact, but each official headline is more likely to amplify swings. Underlying assets: USD/JPY, yen crosses, Nikkei 225, Asian currencies, U.S. Treasury yields.

PayPal is winding down PayPal Ventures, its corporate venture capital unit, after 10 years in operation, as the company reallocates capital and headcount toward its core payment franchises. Multiple overseas media reports, citing sources, said PayPal has confirmed the venture arm's drawdown: the team has shrunk from more than a dozen people at the end of last year to two, the group's staff page has been removed from the company website, and the remaining employees are focused on managing and exiting existing positions with no mandate to pursue new investments. The effort is said to be overseen by new CEO Enrique Lores, who took the role in February 2026, and forms part of a broader strategic restructuring. PayPal said future resources will be concentrated on businesses directly tied to payments, including Venmo, merchant payment processing, and Braintree. The venture operation, viewed as non-core and resource-intensive, is being divested despite recent book gains. Launched in 2016, PayPal Ventures became one of the payments industry's most active corporate investors, backing more than 80 companies and overseeing roughly $6 billion in assets. A decade ago, it entered the market with its $850 million Fund III (about RMB 6 billion) and invested in names that later became prominent across crypto and fintech, including Anchorage Digital, Plaid, and Talos Global. Over time, the unit expanded into blockchain, cryptocurrency infrastructure, and later artificial intelligence, often operating as a forward scout for PayPal's broader crypto ambitions. The closure does not appear driven by poor recent marks. In a report released in February, PayPal disclosed that its venture portfolio added $0.10 to earnings per share in Q4 2025, compared with a $0.04 per-share loss in the same period of 2024, underscoring the portfolio's volatility but also showing a swing back to a positive contribution. Market observers largely frame the decision as strategic rather than performance-related. PayPal Ventures historically prioritized strategic fit over traditional fund metrics, emphasizing how portfolio companies could plug into PayPal's network, compliance needs, risk controls, and merchant relationships. That orientation also helped explain its willingness to fund crypto projects with longer return horizons. Among its best-known holdings, Anchorage Digital is a federally chartered crypto asset custodian serving institutional clients and is one of the few U.S. crypto banks with federal regulatory approval. Talos Global provides institutional-grade crypto trading technology widely used by traditional financial institutions entering digital-asset markets. Plaid has become a critical financial-data interface across U.S. fintech. Other investments included Acorns, Extend, and Paxos. The operational shift has been signaled most clearly through personnel changes. Two London-based partners who helped drive European expansion have departed, leaving a two-person team tasked with wind-down work. PayPal Ventures has not been formally dissolved and continues to exist as a legal entity, but new investment activity has stopped. For portfolio companies, the near-term impact may be limited, but the loss of a strategic backer can complicate fundraising. Startup Fortune noted that PayPal Ventures previously offered more than capital, including brand validation, access to PayPal's payment network, and signaling value. That signaling may matter most for smaller companies raising Series B rounds where strategic investors can help open commercial doors. The wind-down comes amid sweeping changes under new leadership. Former CEO Alex Chriss served nearly three years, during which PayPal's stock fell more than 30%, prompting board dissatisfaction with the pace and execution of change. After Enrique Lores took over in February, PayPal moved quickly: in April it unveiled a new structure dividing operations into three segments—Venmo; consumer and merchant payment services; and a third line covering Braintree, small business payments, and cryptocurrency services. PayPal also formed a dedicated payments-and-crypto-assets department to oversee its digital-asset initiatives. Cost-cutting has been a central theme. The company announced layoffs of about 4,760 employees, roughly one-fifth of its workforce, targeting $1.5 billion in cost reductions. Against that backdrop, an independently run, long-duration corporate venture program that sits outside the three core segments became an obvious candidate for elimination. As part of the liquidation process, PayPal has hired Jefferies to help sell portions of older equity stakes on the secondary market. Plaid and Anchorage Digital are among the assets reported to be on a potential sale list. Any transactions would likely place stakes with institutional buyers or secondary-focused investors, generating near-term paper gains and providing a more orderly exit. The move also reflects a broader pattern. In May, Fidelity International's strategic venture capital arm similarly said it would shut down. Corporate venture capital depends on parent companies funding long-term strategic optionality; when growth slows and shareholder scrutiny intensifies, such programs are often re-evaluated. At the same time, major players such as Google and Microsoft continue to maintain sizable venture operations, suggesting the decision is case-specific rather than a sector-wide retreat. For startups previously backed by PayPal Ventures and now seeking new funding, the practical takeaway is that the fundraising value of a "strategic investor" name on the cap table is being repriced. For PayPal, investors will be watching upcoming quarterly results to see how the freed capital and management attention are redeployed—and whether those resources translate into stronger execution in payments.

Coinbase has secured a UK MiFID license, clearing a regulatory path to expand its product suite for UK customers. The exchange said the approval supports plans to offer derivatives and equities alongside its core crypto services in the UK market.

MACRO: Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed to 2.828%, its highest level in three decades. The move is adding upward pressure to global borrowing costs and could threaten to unwind this month's rally in crypto markets.

Saudi Arabia is considering expanding the capacity of its crude oil pipeline to the Red Sea, a move that would allow the kingdom and neighboring producers to ship more barrels without transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to five sources cited by Odaily Planet Daily. The east-west pipeline, built in the early 1980s, has taken on greater strategic importance since war erupted in Iran in February and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. The line can carry up to 7 million barrels per day of crude to Yanbu on the Red Sea. In May, Aramco's CEO said roughly 2 million barrels per day supply refineries on the western coast, while about 5 million barrels per day are exported. Sources said Saudi Arabia is holding early-stage talks with some neighbors on adding around 2 million barrels per day of capacity. It is not yet clear whether Aramco would expand by upgrading existing infrastructure or by building a new pipeline. One source said the plan also includes a smaller pipeline for refined products. Two sources put the potential expansion range at 1–2 million barrels per day, with refined products also under consideration. Another source said the project would take several years, cost billions of dollars, and require adjustments to Saudi Arabia's crude oil pricing mechanism. (Jin10)

Samsung reported a record quarterly profit of 89.4 trillion won ($58B), boosted by the AI chip boom. The stock still fell more than 10% as investors questioned whether the rally can be sustained, Bloomberg reported.

Ctrl Wallet said it will discontinue operations on August 3, according to Odaily Planet Daily. The crypto wallet has already been removed from the App Store, Google Play, and browser extension stores. Users who already have the app installed can continue using it as normal through August 2. From August 3, sending, receiving, swapping, and DApp connections inside the app will be disabled, with only the export feature remaining available.

A liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker owned by Nakilat was hit by a projectile off the coast of Oman on July 7, triggering a fire on board. EOS Risk Group said in an alert the incident appeared consistent with a drone or missile strike. Vessel-tracking data indicated the Al Rekayyat was not transmitting its AIS signal at the time. UK Maritime Trade Operations also issued an advisory. QatarEnergy and Nakilat did not respond to requests for comment.