Trump administration lowers 2031 CAFE target to 34.9 mpg from 50.4, complicating California clean-car goals
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The administration's looser CAFE fuel-economy standards reduce regulatory pressure to curb gasoline demand versus prior policy, while revoking California's tailpipe authority further weakens electrification incentives. Although officials cite 1.3B barrels of reduced consumption by 2050, the rollback materially undercuts the larger savings previously expected, implying comparatively higher long-run petroleum use. Near term, this policy shift is supportive for U.S. crude-demand expectations and refinery-linked gasoline markets.
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The Trump administration has eased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements, setting a 34.9 miles-per-gallon target for 2031 model-year vehicles versus 50.4 miles per gallon under the Biden administration’s rule. Administration officials said the new standards would cut oil consumption by about 1.3 billion barrels by 2050, compared with average yearly oil use in 2024, a far smaller reduction than the Biden-era estimate of nearly 70 billion gallons of gasoline saved through 2050. The shift could further complicate California’s climate strategy as drivers already face steep costs at the pump, with gasoline averaging about $6.37 a gallon in the state, according to AAA.
