The U.S. move to waive some Iran sanctions fueled expectations of additional oil supply, sending Brent crude briefly higher before it later settled more than 3% lower. Markets also repriced the outlook for U.S. rates amid expectations that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh could push for a faster pace of tightening, with fed funds futures implying a 54% chance of at least two hikes by year-end. The yen hovered near 40-year lows, prompting Japan’s finance minister to speak with U.S. officials. U.S. tech stocks led declines, with the Nasdaq down 1.3% and the S&P 500 off 0.4%.

日本纳豆出口量2025年达5248吨，较2017年增长三倍，主要销往中国和美国。受中东战争影响，作为纳豆发酵关键辅料的石脑油出现短缺，推高纳豆生产成本，促使行业提价并重塑其‘高端健康食品’定位。尽管纳豆本身非 traded commodity，但其大规模工业化生产依赖稳定、低成本的大豆原料供应，日本进口大豆采购行为对亚洲大豆现货及日盘相关合约存在边际影响。

Malaysia’s ringgit is expected to remain under pressure this week, trading in a RM4.13–RM4.15 range versus the US dollar. The outlook reflects continued market expectations of a possible 25basispoint US Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, which has supported the dollar and weighed on regional currencies, including the ringgit. Last week, the ringgit weakened from 4.0555/0600 to 4.1340/1395 and also fell against the pound, yen, euro and major ASEAN currencies.

Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement, while the U.S. and Iran signed a peace memorandum, helping restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with at least four tankers transiting the waterway on Friday. The deal would lift U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports and release more than 85 million barrels of crude stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets. Analysts expect the global oil market to gradually move into surplus, with Brent possibly easing to $80 a barrel by year-end and slipping to $60 to $65 per barrel over the medium term.

Donald Trump said the US military secretly escorted at least 87 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, after disabling Iranian radar and air-defense systems to allow unlit night transits. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said "Project Freedom" has escorted 125 million barrels of oil through the waterway. Trump said oil flows are now "like nobody has ever seen before" and set a 60-day deadline for Iran to reach a final agreement. The developments point to a near-term improvement in the route’s operating capacity, offering short-term support for supply stability.

Brent crude has slipped to about US$76 per barrel from highs of nearly US$100 earlier this year. In theory, cheaper energy should ease pressure on household budgets and business costs. However, in Malaysia, prices for essentials and operating expenses have not fallen in step, prompting questions over whether lower oil prices are being passed through.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Russia has agreed to guarantee long-term supplies of petrol, oil and gas to Malaysia, with a draft agreement already prepared and awaiting signatures by company representatives. He said the arrangement is intended to replace supply agreements that are renewed annually or tied to specific seasons. Anwar added that Malaysia is not facing fuel supply problems and that diesel is now in slight surplus, with some being resold to countries including Timor-Leste.

马来西亚林吉特周四收盘走弱，兑美元报4.1145/1195，较前一交易日显著下挫。市场预期美联储可能年内加息25个基点，推动美元走强。林吉特同步对日元、欧元、泰铢、印尼卢比、菲律宾比索和新加坡元贬值，仅对英镑微升。该走势由美元强势主导，属外汇市场直接反应。

Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is visiting Turkmenistan on June 18-19, with PETRONAS expected to sign an agreement that would extend its oil and gas operations there by another 20 to 25 years. Malaysia is also looking to expand exports such as palm oil, halal products and coffee, which makes up 68.8% of its exports to Turkmenistan. Bilateral trade totalled US$17.71 million in 2024, with Malaysia posting a US$17.58 million surplus, according to Bernama.