BTC breakeven for underwater holders falls to $93,600 after high-cost capitulation

Huoxing Finance reported that on April 5, on-chain analyst Murphy said the average cost basis of all unprofitable Bitcoin positions has slipped below $100,000 to $93,600. That level now marks the market's average breakeven for underwater holders, meaning BTC would return to their collective break-even point if it rebounds to $93,600. Murphy noted that during the two steep sell-offs late last year and early this year, many deeply underwater investors exited at a loss, dragging down the overall cost basis of unprofitable positions—a typical "washout" dynamic. The 30-day average deviation coefficient between that cost basis and BTC's spot price is currently 1.4. At the lows of the past three bear markets, the same coefficient was at least 2.0 (blue waveform). Readings at or above 2.0 have historically aligned with an "absolute bottom" zone, when BTC traded at less than 50% of the average cost basis of unprofitable positions. Under that framework, this cycle's low would need to drop to $46,800 to match prior extremes. Murphy added that history does not always repeat, and this downturn could prove materially less severe than previous bear markets. Separately, PolyBeats tracking shows that on Polymarket, in a market forecasting whether Bitcoin hits $60,000 or $80,000 first, the probability of $60,000 first is 68%, versus 32% for $80,000 first.