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Strategists flag "danger zone" as 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.19% and 10-year reaches 4.667%
On May 23, 2026, several strategists said elevated US long-term Treasury yields are approaching levels that have historically pressured stocks and other risk assets. The 30-year yield recently hit 5.19% and the 10-year reached 4.667%, while strategists warned that a further rise could weigh on equity valuations. At the time of writing, the 30-year was at 5.077% and the 10-year at 4.552%.
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Ed Yardeni Lifts Estimated Probability of Major US Stock Market Downturn to 35% as Oil Prices Climb
On March 13, 2026, Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said he now assigns a 35% probability to a sharp US stock market decline as the conflict in the Middle East continues and oil prices rise. He noted that investors are still buying dips but warned that past oil shocks have often preceded recessions and bear markets, while WTI crude trades near $92.22 and the S&P 500 sits at 6,775.79.
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