At the start of the final week of 2025, Bitcoin failed to establish $90,000 as support while trading around $88,037 and closing in on the yearly candle. Derivatives data showed elevated volatility after a $24 billion options expiry, onchain metrics highlighted key realized price levels near $99,785, and Bitfinex whales pushed BTC long positions to their highest level in nearly two years as they position for 2026. Traditional markets and precious metals hit fresh highs while crypto lagged, but whale spot activity and large order sizes suggested accumulating demand, even as Bitcoin’s nearly 40% pullback from its $126,200 all-time high kept sentiment cautious.

Market commentators say a sharp divide has emerged between Bitcoin supporters and precious metals advocates after a year of strong moves for both sides, with Bitcoin’s long-term returns contrasted against gold and silver’s powerful rally. Analyst Adam Livingston cites roughly 27,700% gains for Bitcoin since 2015, versus about 400% for silver and 280% for gold, while critics such as Peter Schiff argue that shorter timeframes tell a different story. Other analysts highlight how macro factors, a weaker US dollar and expectations of Fed easing in 2026 are driving all three assets, suggesting Bitcoin does not need gold or silver to slow before it can rise again.

According to Axel Adler Jr., three months of on-chain data show that Bitcoin's realized losses have dropped from a 7-day average of $2.4B in late November to $0.5B, an 80% reduction from capitulation levels. November 21–22 saw z-scores as high as 8.7–10.9 and daily losses above $5B, while later spikes with z-score near 1–2 are framed as normal volatility rather than renewed distress. Net realized profit/loss remains negative but is trending toward the zero line, which the analysis views as a condition for a potential local recovery if new demand appears.

On 29 December 2025 at 10:15, a fresh bearish debate on Bitcoin drew attention. According to Mike McGlone's online post on December 28, 2025, the post-2020 rally was liquidity-driven, with $50,000 seen as a transition rather than safety and $10,000 cited as a possible anchor. He frames deflation risk as a key headwind for risk assets.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on the Tetragrammaton podcast with Rick Rubin that Bitcoin pressures US policymakers to maintain fiscal discipline and can bolster the dollar’s long-term standing. He warned that inflation exceeding growth risks reserve currency status, noting rising debt is pushing some investors toward Bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin is trading in a narrow band between $85,000 and $92,000, where resistance is increasingly used by investors to exit positions. On-chain metrics show only about 65% of supply in profit and sentiment indicators have turned bearish, while analysts warn a breakdown could send the price toward the low-volume zone near $75,000. The current fragile phase began in early November and could persist before any decisive move unfolds.

On Monday morning, bitcoin climbed to just over $90,000 before encountering resistance, with one analyst tying the move to renewed buying by both retail traders and large whales. Another analyst argued the advance may be a dead-cat bounce, pointing to net capital outflows of more than $4.5 billion and weaker spot ETF inflows. Bitcoin remains about 2.3% higher on the day, while major altcoins such as ETH, BNB and XRP also advanced, with ETH reclaiming the $3,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty climbed to 148.2 trillion in the final 2025 adjustment and is projected to rise toward about 149 trillion around January 8, 2026, at block height 931,392. Faster-than-target block times and pressure on miner profitability are driving tighter conditions, while Bitmain responds with steep discounts on S19 XP+ Hydro hardware slated to ship in January 2026.