U.S. Vice President JD Vance traveled to Switzerland to open talks with Iran, with mediators from Pakistan and Qatar involved, focusing on the nuclear issue and a Lebanon ceasefire. Separately, President Donald Trump said that if negotiations fail, the U.S. could “take over” the Strait of Hormuz and claim 20% of the oil that passes through it, warning that Iran would lose its country if it tried to close the waterway. The remarks amount to an escalation in military deterrence aimed at a critical global shipping chokepoint, even though no actual blockade has occurred. The flare-up has sharply raised the geopolitical risk premium.

Host Jesse Kelly said geopolitical conflict tied to Iran has constrained tanker traffic, forcing countries worldwide to draw down oil reserves. He said the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, leaving roughly a four-week supply. Kelly argued that because oil underpins the global economy, sustained tight supply that pushes prices to $150–$200 a barrel could trigger a global recession and put millions of lives at risk.

Before leaving office in January 2025, Biden issued a permanent ban on offshore drilling across 625 million acres of U.S. ocean waters, and in 2023 he also prohibited drilling on 10 million acres in Alaska. In an appearance on “Jay Leno’s Garage,” he said the restrictions covered the East Coast, the West Coast and areas more than 150 miles off the Gulf of Mexico. The measures are implemented executive bans rather than proposals, and they are not expected to have an immediate impact on output, but they curb expectations for medium- to long-term supply growth.