Nuvama said the ongoing West Asia conflict is likely to keep corporate earnings under pressure in the first half of FY27 as higher energy costs narrow margins. The impact will vary by sector: some automakers are absorbing the cost increase, while consumer-facing companies such as paint makers are passing it on, risking slower volumes. The report expects earnings to rebound in the second half, but warns that weak demand, fading GST-cut support and subdued income dynamics could put the BSE500’s 19% YoY profit-after-tax growth forecast at risk of downgrades.

Indian equities opened higher on Monday, with the SENSEX up 0.47% and the NIFTY50 gaining 0.39%. The move followed a pullback in Brent crude to $79.55 per barrel amid broader weakness in oil prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed to 72,935.00, while gold rose to $4,176.09 an ounce. Analysts said steadier oil, stronger Japanese shares and a firmer rupee helped lift sentiment.

Iran has suspended a quadrilateral technical meeting in Switzerland involving the U.S., Iran, Qatar and Pakistan after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly threatened to hit Iran “very hard” over its “highly paid proxies in Lebanon,” according to Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson. He said discussions had continued on licences for Iranian oil sales, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a maritime security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz, with progress reported on the oil and assets issues. Qatar and Pakistan sought to keep the talks in a four-party format, but Iran declined. The pause leaves key implementation arrangements stalled despite technical progress, adding uncertainty to efforts tied to Iranian oil exports.

India’s sugar output fell to 29.3 million tonnes (MT) in FY25, about 18% below its FY22 peak, while domestic consumption rose to a record 29.0 MT in FY24, tightening the supply-demand balance. The gap between supply and demand narrowed to 0.3 MT in FY24, the tightest in a decade, according to Exencial Research Partners. The report said the outlook hinges on the FY26 monsoon and ethanol diversion policy, as FY25 cane output came in below ISMA’s earlier estimate. It also noted a shift in export destinations toward Africa and the Gulf, even as export revenues remain below the FY23 peak.

ICICI Bank Research expects Brent crude to trade in a $75–$85/bbl range in the second half of 2026 as physical markets stay tight. The bank estimates a net supply deficit of 1.6mbpd over 2026, with the gap widening to 6mbpd in May and inventories drawing by about 60 million barrels from March to May. It said the US and Iran signed a 60-day ceasefire memorandum that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and waivers to lift Iranian crude exports, but a supply recovery is expected to take time, according to the report.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces carried out long-range strikes on both sides of the Crimean Bridge, destroying an oil depot in Kerch and maritime oil logistics facilities in Russia’s Krasnodar region. He said the operation also struck Russian military logistics targets and destroyed several air-defence radar systems. Russian authorities said the attack killed at least four people and injured several others.

Since the West Asia conflict began on February 28, escalating military action involving Iran, the US and Israel has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transit route. The disruption has heightened crude supply risks and triggered sharp volatility in international oil prices. Over the same period, Indian equities weakened, with the Nifty 50 and Sensex both coming under pressure.

Gold prices in India slipped slightly on Saturday, with 24K gold at Rs 1,45,850 per 10 grams, down Rs 10 from the previous day, while silver fell Rs 100 to Rs 2,49,900 per kilogram. Overseas prices also eased, with spot gold down 0.5% to USD 4,189.26 per ounce and US August gold futures down 0.9%. The moves came as a stronger dollar and hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve weighed on non-yielding assets. India’s gold imports also dropped by nearly 70% after the customs levy was raised to 15%, according to Finance Ministry data.

ICICI Research said Brent crude has fallen 16% since the June meeting of India’s Monetary Policy Committee and is now around USD 80-85 per barrel, citing easing geopolitical risks and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The report said the decline in energy prices has materially improved the inflation outlook. If oil stays near current levels and the conflict does not re-escalate, it said the MPC could lower its inflation forecast at the August meeting, reducing the likelihood of a near-term rate hike. The analysis focuses on how shifts in the policy path can feed through to commodity pricing.