Russia has been hit by large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks that severely damaged key refineries, triggering fuel shortages and rationing across multiple regions. In mid-June, gasoline output was down 25% year on year and diesel output fell 15%, while the national average gasoline price rose to 71.20 rubles per litre in the last week of June, marking the biggest one-week increase in 20 years. Jet fuel supplies also tightened, with prices at some airports jumping 64%. The disruption represents a supply shock to refining that has directly squeezed the domestic fuel market and, in turn, reinforced demand for crude processing and export premia.

Cloud and AI expert David Linthicum warns that Microsoft, Meta and Google have collectively committed more than $220 billion to AI data-centre infrastructure in 2025, even as enterprise adoption remains slow and services stay expensive. He argues current demand is nowhere near sufficient to justify that scale of capital spending. Linthicum also cites IBM CEO Arvind Krishna’s view that the economics “don’t add up”, estimating that industry ambitions could imply investments approaching $8 trillion while profits needed just to service the costs would require about $800 billion. The critique raises fresh questions about the durability of returns behind the buildout.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will visit India on June 23–24 for ministerial-level talks aimed at finalizing the first phase of an interim trade deal and advancing a broader Bilateral Trade Agreement. Both sides are working toward signing the initial phase by mid-July, with India seeking tariff cuts on certain exports while offering to lower duties on U.S. industrial goods and key farm products such as tree nuts, fruit, wine and sorghum. Negotiators are moving under pressure from a July 24 deadline tied to the U.S. administration’s 10 per cent blanket tariff period, while talks also run alongside a USTR Section 301 probe linked to forced-labour concerns.

A proposed memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran could allow Tehran to restart large-scale oil and fuel exports and potentially earn more than $60 billion annually. Several Iranian oil tankers have already departed ports and crossed what was described as a US naval blockade line this week, signalling early signs of renewed export activity. The prospect has lifted expectations for higher global crude supply, though neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed the reported terms or revenue estimates.

Iran and the United States reached an interim ceasefire under which Washington lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, enabling Tehran to restart large-scale crude exports. In recent days, Iran has shipped about 18 million barrels worth roughly $1.44 billion, with most cargoes loaded from Kharg Island. The rebound adds to global oil supply and could increase downward pressure on crude prices.

Reliance Industries said at its AGM 2026 that it is accelerating its energy transition, centring on India-based renewables, green ammonia and an AI-driven autonomous refinery. The company said the goal is to help cut India’s reliance on imported energy, which currently accounts for nearly 70% of national needs. The plan is framed as a long-term push to reduce oil dependence even as India’s energy demand continues to rise rapidly and import reliance remains high.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon has begun a comprehensive review of America’s military deployments in Europe that could run for up to six months. He warned NATO allies that Washington expects them to raise defence spending and take greater responsibility for Europe’s security. The US has already moved to cut some crisis-response capabilities it makes available to NATO, including F-15 fighters and MQ-4/MQ-9 drone deployments. European countries, including Belgium, are stepping up contributions such as F-16s and MQ-9B drones, though German officials cautioned that a rapid US pullback could leave capability gaps.

Gold is seen moving into a new phase of a structural bull market, driven by sustained central bank buying aimed at diversifying reserves and reducing currency risk. Analysts also point to rising global debt, concerns over fiscal stability and recurring geopolitical tensions as factors reinforcing gold’s long-term store-of-value role. Although stronger U.S. data, higher bond yields and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s timing on rate cuts have weighed on prices in the short term, many expect an eventual shift toward easier monetary policy to support bullion.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a US-Iran peace memorandum, with Iran set to resume oil exports and receive sanctions relief. The United States also barred imports of copper products from Serbia Zijin Copper, citing forced labour. The two developments point to expectations of a material improvement on the crude supply side and tighter conditions in part of the copper supply chain, creating direct price catalysts for traditional commodities.