Brent crude surged 7.5% and WTI moved above US$100, after a sharp rise in attacks on Red Sea shipping intensified fears of supply disruptions. The moves, alongside the US 10year yield rising to 4.96%, revived investor concerns about inflation and pushed major Wall Street indexes lower. Australian shares are expected to open 0.9% lower, while the Australian dollar slipped to 71.5 US cents.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned at the Jackson Hole symposium that inflation remains entrenched, signalling the US central bank may still need to raise interest rates. US stocks fell, with the S&P 500 down 0.25% and the Nasdaq down 0.5%. Tech shares were mixed as Nvidia dropped 4.3% and Marvel Technology fell more than 10% while Alphabet and Apple rose. ASX 200 futures indicate a 0.4% decline at the open.

Ravenswood Gold has completed a $1.4 billion refinancing for Queensland’s largest gold mine, lifting hedge obligations that had locked in sales well below the current spot price of $4,100 an ounce. The new structure is designed to improve the company’s exposure to higher gold prices and support a production ramp-up from 134,000 ounces a year to 200,000 ounces by 2027. The refinancing does not change gold’s spot supply-demand fundamentals, but it strengthens miners’ ability to translate elevated prices into earnings and capital spending confidence.

Mackay Sugar’s Racecourse and Farleigh mills in Australia have been offline for about a week since June 10 following a suspected attack linked to the Russian-speaking ransomware group The Gentlemen. The company has only completed a partial manual crush and steam trials, and plans a phased restart by the end of the week. The outage has paused harvesting for 1,300 contracted farms, with growers warning that a delayed season could reduce cane sugar content and raise costs. The disruption affects near-term physical sugar supply timing but does not involve changes to global major-producing regions or inventory data.

Japan’s Inpex and Australian unions have reached an in-principle agreement in a labour dispute at the Ichthys LNG facility, ending weeks of strikes and allowing normal operations to resume. The proposed deal includes 3.75 per cent annual pay rises along with job security provisions, but still requires approval via a union member vote. The plant produces about 8.9 million tonnes of LNG a year, mainly for Asian exports, and earlier industrial action delayed several cargo departures.

The US is reportedly set to sign a memorandum of understanding that would allow waivers on some sanctions tied to Iran’s oil exports, including banking, transport and insurance services. Iran is said to hold more than 100 million barrels of crude in storage and on tankers, with 60 million barrels outside the scope of US sanctions. The change would add to global oil supply and put direct pressure on international crude prices.

Businesses across regional Australia say the fallout from a late-February surge in global oil prices is still rippling through transport, farming and tourism, after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sent crude to historic highs. In Australia, diesel prices doubled overnight for some operators, intensifying cost pressures across supply chains. Federal measures to halve the fuel excise and suspend road user charges for truck drivers expire on June 30, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has not yet committed to an extension. Experts warn fuel costs could stay elevated as countries rebuild strategic reserves drawn down under the International Energy Agency, a process expected to take 18–24 months.

The Strait of Hormuz is expected to reopen within days after an interruption of more than three months that affected nearly a fifth of global seaborne oil shipments. The US and Iran have signed a ceasefire agreement, and President Donald Trump said the passage would be “completely opened” and “toll free.” Brent crude previously jumped from below $US70 a barrel in February to more than $US120 a barrel in April. Analysts say a full recovery in shipping could take 3–6 months, while futures may fall quickly and spot prices could ease within weeks.

A possible ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran helped lift US stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 up 3.1% and the Dow closing at a record. SpaceX shares surged 19.6% on their second day of trading after reports that Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting took a reported $1.4 billion stake at IPO. In Australia, markets are overwhelmingly expecting the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting. ASX futures point to a modest pullback, with SPI 200 futures down 1.1%.