El Niño-linked weather is expected to pull India’s monsoon rains to an 11-year low, delaying cane planting and pushing some farmers toward less water-intensive crops such as soybeans. At the same time, faster implementation of mandatory ethanol blending is leading mills to prioritize cane for ethanol production. Output for the current season is now estimated at 27.9 million tons versus annual consumption of about 28.5 million tons, with end-season stocks seen at roughly 3.5 million tons, the lowest in more than three decades. India has halted sugar exports until September 30 and is likely to effectively limit shipments through season-by-season approvals.

Oil prices rose after planned U.S.-Iran peace talks in Switzerland were called off and U.S. Vice President JD Vance dropped his travel plans, while Israel stepped up attacks on Lebanon. Brent crude futures gained 0.64% to $80.36 a barrel and the WTI front-month contract rose 1.7% to $77.88 a barrel. The shift in the geopolitical backdrop has weakened confidence that tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz will resume smoothly, stoking concerns about potential supply disruptions.

India’s National Metallurgical Laboratory has signed a technology transfer agreement with Bengaluru-based CircuOre to recycle used lithium-ion batteries. The lab said the technology can help recover lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, copper, aluminium and graphite from used and waste lithium-ion batteries. The development is expected to strengthen recycled supply of critical metals.

India’s reliance on crude imports is set to rise from 84% in 2014–15 to 90% in 2025–26, while domestic crude output falls from 36 million tonnes to 26 million tonnes over the same period. Natural-gas imports have also climbed, taking their share in domestic consumption to over 50%. To ease inflation, the government has cut special additional excise duty on fuels—an annual fiscal hit of Rs 1 trillion—and set up measures such as an Economic Stabilisation Fund, risking a wider deficit of about 5.3% of GDP. The article argues that if global oil prices retreat, the government should quickly reverse the fuel-tax cuts, a move that would curb downstream price pass-through and dampen refiners’ buying appetite, creating a marginal drag on crude and gas demand.

Indian official Amitabh Kant said energy independence is India’s top strategic priority, warning that the country’s $180 billion a year fossil-fuel import bill leaves it exposed to swings in global oil prices. He urged India to sharply scale up renewable capacity from a 500 GW target to a 1,500 GW roadmap, expand nuclear power—especially small modular reactors—and build 24×7 storage. Kant also warned that clean-energy transitions could create new vulnerabilities if critical-mineral processing and battery supply chains are monopolised, and he underscored oil as a core import in India’s energy security framework.

An OECD report finds that roughly 60% of Chinese firms’ global market-share gains from 2005–2023 can be attributed directly to government subsidies, compared with an OECD-country average of about 22%. It highlights hidden support such as below-market borrowings (BMB), which it says has helped drive severe oversupply in solar manufacturing, with 2024 capacity more than double demand, and has pressured international fertiliser prices. The analysis does not name specific listed companies but flags policy risk for solar manufacturers and for agriculture-related stocks in economies that depend on fertiliser imports, according to the report.

The LNG carrier Disha, managed by a Shipping Corporation of India-led consortium, has safely transited the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement. The vessel is carrying 62,370 metric tonnes of LNG and is due to arrive at Dahej port in Gujarat on June 18. India’s maritime authorities said port operations remain normal with no congestion, and coordination is in place to support seafarers’ safety and return to duty.