In 2025, Bitcoin faced tight liquidity, a U.S.-China tariff conflict, and other macro headwinds even as it set four new all-time highs, the latest near $126k. With 2026 approaching, factors such as the Clarity Act‑driven deregulation, stimulus checks, the end of quantitative tightening, and strong retail participation are being compared to the 2020 stimulus cycle that preceded BTC’s rally from $10k to $69k. If these conditions play out in a similar way, some traders believe Bitcoin could be positioned for another powerful upside phase.

In the last week of 2025, the overall crypto market cap remains 7% below its $3.15 trillion peak, while the stablecoin sector has risen 25% year-to-date to $315 billion. At the same time, stablecoin inflows to exchanges have fallen from about $136 billion to roughly $70 billion since September, suggesting liquidity is cautious ahead of a macro-heavy week.

Bitcoin is nearing a pivotal FOMC window as silver spikes to a record $79/oz and momentum prints an RSI near 90. November inflation was 2.7%, above the Fed's 2% target, narrowing room for rate cuts. With legacy assets stretched and BTC chopping sideways, either rotation higher or a risk-off slide is possible.

Over the past week, the crypto market traded in a tight range while traditional safe-haven assets like gold, silver, and platinum attracted inflows. Canton [CC], Zcash [ZEC], and DASH [DASH] recorded notable weekly gains, whereas Pippin [PIPPIN], XDC Network [XDC], and MYX Finance [MYX] ended among the biggest losers. Price swings ranged from double-digit rallies to steep drops exceeding 70% across select altcoins.

Ethereum’s validator queue has turned net positive by 278,935 validators after four months, while ETH has been trading in a $2.6k–$3k range. A large staking move by BitMine, which added 79k ETH to reach 154k ETH staked, highlights growing long-term yield focus even as exchange reserves rise and ETFs see outflows. These shifts suggest early signs of renewed confidence amid the network’s transition from short-term to long-term holders.

In 2025, XRP has seen its exchange balances decline from about 4 billion tokens to roughly 1.5 billion while ETFs linked to the asset recorded $1.14 billion in net inflows across five products. Even though XRP recently dropped below $2 and open interest on Binance fell to $453 million, it has only lost 12% for the year compared to larger drawdowns in other majors like Solana. With on-chain demand holding up and the Clarity Act scheduled for markup in early January, some traders view the latest price move as a reset rather than a structural breakdown heading into 2026.

China's export controls on silver begin on 01 January, intensifying a metals rally as Bitcoin faces a key test into Q1 2026. In Q4 2025, silver surged 70% to an all-time high of $79/oz while BTC fell 25% after early-October tariff headlines. Analysts say institutions now hold 50–60% of silver supply, tightening flows.

On 26 December, Bitcoin fell 2.22% to around $86,000, shedding nearly $3,000 in 45 minutes and triggering about $70 million in long liquidations, yet overall liquidations stayed limited and sentiment remained in the fear zone. Throughout 2025, derivatives positioning has cooled notably and exchange balances have dropped by roughly 15%, suggesting leverage has reset while long-term holder conviction remains comparatively firm and could support a constructive setup heading into 2026.

Since 21 November, Ethereum whales accumulated 4.8 million ETH, lifting their holdings from 22.4 million to 27.2 million and defending a $2,796 realized price level. ETH dominance recovered from 11.5% toward ~13% while price moved between $3k and $3.5k. Estimated leverage ratio reached 2.964, leaving ETH sensitive to de‑leveraging if flows stay BTC‑heavy.