Bitcoin entered the final week of the year trading 30% below its $126,000 all-time high from Oct. 6, while several traders and banks highlight bullish signals into 2026. Analysts point to a recurring “Christmas bear trap,” cooling spot ETF outflows, and a daily symmetrical triangle that could target about $107,000, with one bank setting a 12-month base case at $143,000 and a bull scenario at $189,000.

On 30 December 2025, Bitcoin staged a sharp rally followed by a rapid reversal, with analysts suggesting the move was driven more by liquidity dynamics than genuine buying interest. The surge occurred while funding was negative, open interest was high, and short liquidations above a key resistance zone pushed price into thin liquidity, creating what appeared to be a breakout before collapsing once forced buying subsided.

Metaplanet, the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin-focused firm, disclosed that it bought 4,279 BTC in Q4 2025 for $451.06 million, raising its total holdings to 35,102 BTC at a cumulative cost of about $3.78 billion. With BTC trading below $90,000, the position is sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly $520 million, while the company’s stock has dropped sharply and its mNAV multiple has compressed toward parity. Metaplanet continues to pursue an income-generating derivatives strategy and fresh equity financing to fund further accumulation, mirroring the steady buying approach of Strategy and other corporate holders in 2025.

Bitcoin's price was rejected near $90,000, coinciding with roughly $100 million in leveraged liquidations and renewed demand for gold and US Treasurys. At the same time, lower rates and fresh record highs in the S&P 500 have made traditional markets more attractive, while falling hash rate, tighter miner margins and discounts on listed Bitcoin reserve firms have clouded BTC's appeal as digital gold.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has argued that the sharp decline of Iran's currency and rising protests in Tehran underscore Bitcoin's role as a hedge against currency devaluation. Since the June war with Israel, the rial has lost over 40% of its value, inflation has climbed above 42%, and gold coin prices have hit record highs while authorities have tightened rules on Bitcoin mining. Iranians are facing mounting economic pressure from sanctions, banking troubles, and soaring food prices, while some analysts say restrictive crypto policies are limiting people's ability to protect their savings.

On 30 Dec 2025, Sberbank said it extended Russia's first corporate loan secured by Bitcoin to miner Intelion Data. The pilot used Intelion's mined digital currency as collateral, with the assets held via Sberbank's Rutoken custody system. The bank did not disclose the loan size, term, rate, or detailed risk parameters.

Metaplanet disclosed in a Tuesday filing that it acquired an additional 4,279 BTC in late December 2025 at a cost of about $451 million, lifting its total holdings to 35,102 BTC valued at roughly $3 billion. The firm also reported that revenue from its Bitcoin Income Generation segment climbed to 8.58 billion Japanese yen for 2025, driven by option-based strategies that generate recurring cash flow while leaving its core BTC reserve untouched.

According to analysis shared by Darkfost, Bitcoin's long-term holder supply has posted its first positive 30-day change since mid-July, with about 10,700 BTC moving into long-term status. Earlier readings of heavy distribution were skewed by a roughly 800,000 BTC Coinbase-linked transfer. The shift eases selling pressure but does not confirm a trend reversal.