Bitcoin futures open interest has retreated to $34 billion, the lowest level since November 2024, while BTC price struggles to hold above $72,000. At the same time, weak US labor data and a 22% options skew toward puts highlight growing caution, even as gold and the S&P 500 remain relatively robust.

An analyst said Bitcoin's seven-day average realized net losses reached $2.3 billion, framing the sell-off as one of the largest capitulation episodes since 2021. The asset briefly moved above $70,000 on Tuesday and later hovered near $66,600 after rebounding from a Feb. 6 low around $60,000, with a $55,000 realized price highlighted.

On February 13, 2026, JPMorgan and Standard Chartered outlined contrasting short-term paths but broadly constructive longer-term outlooks for bitcoin. JPMorgan highlighted an estimated $77,000 production cost as a key support level, while Standard Chartered cautioned that BTC could slide toward $50,000 before rebounding toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin failed to hold above $68,800 and has retreated below $67,500, with price now under $67,000 and the 100‑hour simple moving average. A bearish trendline around $67,500 on the hourly BTC/USD chart (data feed from Kraken) caps rebounds, and a drop through $66,000 or $65,000 could extend losses.

JPMorgan estimates that the average cost to mine one Bitcoin has declined from $90,000 to about $77,000 since the beginning of the year, following a roughly 15% drop in network difficulty and lower hashrate. The bank argues that this easing is pressuring high‑cost miners but improving margins and market share prospects for more efficient operators, while it continues to project a long‑term Bitcoin price target of $266,000.

BitQuant argued that Bitcoin’s retreat toward $60,000 was a necessary reset after an early local top above $126,000 in October 2025 failed to meet its $145,000 threshold. The firm said a Binance technical issue on October 10 coincided with a slide from about $120,000 to $105,000, but the broader decline reflected structural weaknesses rather than panic or manipulation.

Perplexity AI has issued long-term price projections for XRP, Cardano and Bitcoin, outlining potential new all-time highs by the end of 2026. Its scenario points to XRP rising toward $8, Cardano advancing to around $6 and Bitcoin reaching as high as $250,000, with an additional upside case of $500,000. The outlook is framed around current prices, technical indicators, ecosystem growth and expected catalysts such as ETF approvals, regulation and institutional demand.

On Oct. 2, 2025, Bitcoin set an all‑time high at $126,000. On Feb. 6, Glassnode recorded a long‑term holder net‑position change drop of 245,000 BTC, followed by average reductions of 170,000 BTC, while CryptoQuant’s MVRV Adaptive Z‑Score hit -2.66. Several analysts now project a potential bottom around $40,000–$50,000 in Q4 2026.