Fast USD/JPY swings and margin cuts seen feeding Bitcoin sell-offs

USD/JPY swung from near 160 to around 153.02 on Feb. 12, 2026, putting the yen on track for a weekly gain of close to 3% by Feb. 13, a speed and scale that can trigger margin and VAR cuts and force cross-asset deleveraging that reaches Bitcoin via thinner liquidity, wider spreads and fast position reductions, Reuters and BIS Bulletin No. 90 report. On Feb. 12, Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said Tokyo "has not lowered its guard" against FX volatility and is watching markets with "high urgency" while staying in close contact with U.S. counterparts, Reuters reported. BIS data show yen-denominated loans to nonbanks outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS' conversion at the time, and that cross-border yen bank claims on certain offshore nonbank segments exceeded ¥80 trillion before the August 2024 episode, when Bitcoin and Ethereum posted losses of up to 20%.