Analyst says Fed chair Kevin Warsh may cut rates as traders price 25 BPS hike by Dec 2026

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as chair of the US Federal Reserve on Friday, and analyst Lawrence Lepard argues Warsh is more likely to cut interest rates than raise them. Traders are positioned the other way: the federal funds target rate is 350–375 basis points, and futures imply nearly 68% odds of a 25 basis points (BPS) hike or more by December 2026. The debate has kept investors focused on how a policy shift could affect risk assets such as Bitcoin and other crypto.