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Citi Says Trump's Geopolitical Peace Agenda Could Remove Oil Risk Premium

On February 17, 2026, Citi analysts stated that global oil prices could fall if former President Donald Trump successfully brokers new geopolitical peace deals, as a significant risk premium remains embedded in crude markets. They estimate that geopolitical tensions can add $5 to $10 per barrel, and credible ceasefires or settlements could rapidly unwind this premium even before supply changes, while OPEC+ policy, China's demand and US Strategic Petroleum Reserve decisions continue to shape the broader price outlook.
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