Trading

Fed funds futures tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool imply a 99.5% chance the Federal Reserve keeps rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the April 29 FOMC meeting. The repricing follows WTI moving above $110 per barrel and Brent settling above $107 amid the reported U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, while prediction markets lift the probability of zero 2026 cuts to 36% on Polymarket and 38.5% on Kalshi. Markets also assign a 96.7% probability of another hold at the June 17 meeting.

Chainlink (LINK) has remained under $9 after slipping below $10 in early February, with the token still nearly 70% below its $25 cycle high. On April 3, on-chain analyst Darkfost said 14.7 million LINK—worth about $126 million—was transferred to Binance in a single day, a flow they cautioned could add sell-side pressure. LINK was around $8.7 at the time of writing, up 0.5% over 24 hours and about 1.5% over the past week.

Bitcoin’s retail participation appears to be fading, with “shrimp” (under 1 BTC) inflows dropping to record lows and keeping confidence around a $65k local bottom uncertain. Meanwhile, memecoin engagement remains muted, including a sharp fall in Solana active wallets from over 30 million at its mid-2025 peak to below 5 million. Against that backdrop, heavy institutional activity—led by BlackRock’s IBIT ETF trading $16-18 billion daily—supports a “buy the fear” setup that could underpin BTC if risk sentiment turns.

XRP’s derivatives positioning has reset as open interest fell to 820.92M and funding rates hovered near zero, while the taker buy/sell ratio moved slightly above neutral to 1.05. XRP traded around $1.31, with price failing to break $1.33 after the April 1–April 4 rebound and volume running 23% above the weekly average without a breakout.

Bitcoin hovered around $67,000 on Saturday afternoon as U.S.-Iran tensions intensified following President Donald Trump's April 4, 2026 post giving Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The wider backdrop included Operation Epic Fury, which U.S. forces say has hit more than 9,000 targets since Feb. 28, 2026, alongside oil prices rising above $100 to $110 a barrel. BTC briefly dipped below $68,000 before returning to the $67,000 area, after earlier sliding toward a 2026 low near $65,834 and then rebounding.

Bitcoin traded at $66,845 at the time of writing, up 0.42% over the past 24 hours, while price action stayed range-bound. On-chain and flow metrics suggest weaker demand as exchange withdrawals hit 908 addresses and large-holder accumulation appears to stall. In derivatives, funding was slightly positive at 0.0037% but Open Interest slipped 0.87% to $46.14 billion, pointing to cautious positioning.

Coinbase analysts say the crypto market faces elevated risk as President Donald Trump's April 6 deadline on the Iran deal approaches. David Duong warned that a prolonged standoff could raise geopolitical risk premia across energy and broader risk assets, leaving crypto vulnerable into the weekend. Bitcoin hovered near $68K as SOPR neared 1, while options data showed stronger demand for downside protection into late April.

Dogecoin (DOGE) traded around $0.091 after rising 0.95% in the past 24 hours, while volume fell 23% to $543 million. Since March 31, 2026, whales have accumulated more than 500 million DOGE as price ranged between $0.087 and $0.101. Traders are watching $0.095 for a bullish daily close and $0.08821 as a key support level.

Prediction markets are signaling heightened April 2026 geopolitical risk, with odds of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by month-end falling from 76.5% to about 10%. Separate oil contracts show 76.5% expect WTI to top $120, including 53.5% pricing $130 and nearly a third projecting $140+. The shift suggests traders are positioning for continued disruption and near-term volatility across risk assets, including crypto.

Cardano (ADA) saw heightened whale-driven activity over the past week even as the token fell about 8%. Data cited from Santiment shows large holders accumulated roughly 220 million ADA during the same period, while separate commentary pointed to some ADA being rotated into NIGHT. ADA was priced at $0.2407 at press time, down 1.19% over the last 24 hours.