Trump team doubts Iran offer tying Strait of Hormuz access to postponed nuclear talks

Good morning. It's Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush market brief. Top headlines 1) CZCE, DCE, SHFE and SHFE Energy issued holiday notices adjusting margin requirements and daily price limits for select futures contracts during the 2026 Labor Day break. 2) The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warned of heightened uncertainty in the urea market and called on member firms to strengthen risk reminders and investor education, urging compliant, prudent participation. 3) Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) data show Malaysia's palm oil output for April 1–20 is estimated up 17.52%. 4) SMM reports that firmer LME nickel prices and stronger stainless futures prompted a leading Indonesian stainless producer to halt trading and suspend weekend pricing. 5) Mysteel data show Australia's lithium concentrate shipments to China totaled 25,000 tons in April 20–26, down 69,000 tons week over week; the weekly average to China stands at 69,400 tons. 6) Rezaei, military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, said no country can stop Iran's oil exports. 7) The Wall Street Journal cited U.S. officials as saying President Donald Trump and his national security team are skeptical of Iran's latest proposal, under which Iran would ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open while putting nuclear discussions on hold. 8) USDA crop progress data show U.S. soybean planting at 23% for the week ended April 26, above expectations of 22% (12% prior week, 17% a year ago, five-year average 12%). Macro 1) In a televised interview aired April 26, Ibrahim Aziz, chair of Iran's Islamic Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said Hormuz transit fees must be settled in Iran's currency, the rial, and that vessels or cargo linked to Israel are barred from passing. 2) Axios, citing a U.S. official and two sources, reported Iran offered to prioritize an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift maritime sanctions, while pushing nuclear negotiations to a later stage. 3) Shanghai Shipping Exchange data show the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (Europe route) at 1,567.20 as of April 27, down 2.7% from the prior reading. 4) Saudi outlet alhadath cited regional officials saying Iran's latest Hormuz proposal may be rejected by the U.S. because it excludes nuclear talks. 5) CZCE, DCE, SHFE and SHFE Energy reiterated holiday adjustments to margins and price limits for select contracts. 6) China's Ministry of Finance responded to Moody's decision to affirm China's sovereign rating at A1 and revise the outlook to stable, welcoming the move. 7) The Wall Street Journal repeated that U.S. officials see the Trump team questioning Iran's proposal linking Hormuz openness with a pause in nuclear discussions. Global futures moves 1) Crude rose sharply: WTI main contract +2.42% to $96.68/bbl; Brent main contract +2.86% to $101.97/bbl. The market priced in tighter flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks, alongside rising expectations of Middle East supply cuts, lifting the geopolitical risk premium. 2) Precious metals fell: COMEX gold -0.91% to $4,697.70/oz; COMEX silver -1.25% to $75.46/oz. Traders waited on the Fed meeting for policy signals; safe-haven demand and central-bank buying offered support, but near-term policy expectations weighed. 3) Base metals were mostly lower in London: LME nickel +0.66% to $19,140.0/ton; lead +0.05% to $1,963.5/ton; aluminum -0.50% to $3,573.0/ton; copper -0.62% to $13,226.5/ton; tin -1.77% to $49,440.0/ton; zinc -2.23% to $3,395.0/ton. 4) By 23:00 on April 27, most China domestic main futures contracts closed higher. Asphalt rose over 3%; fuel oil over 2%; 20# rubber, PET, rubber, rapeseed meal, LPG and polypropylene gained over 1%. Glass fell over 2%; BR rubber and caustic soda dropped over 1%. Ferrous and bulk commodities 1) China's key west-to-east coal corridor, the Datong–Qinhuangdao Railway, completed its 2026 spring overhaul three days early, strengthening readiness for summer peak demand. The overhaul lasted 27 days; annual coal transport is about 400 million tons, and daily freight still reached 1 million tons during works. 2) Mysteel: global iron ore shipments in April 20–26 totaled 32.501 million tons, up 1.762 million tons week over week. Australia and Brazil shipped 25.934 million tons, up 0.574 million tons. Australia shipped 19.095 million tons, up 0.732 million tons, including 16.975 million tons to China, up 2.322 million tons. 3) China's National Energy Administration said the domestic coal market shows slight price increases, ample inventories and stable supply-demand. Since April, nationwide average daily dispatched coal output has stayed above 12.5 million tons. Stocks at regulated power plants hit 190 million tons as of April 23, enough for 32 days and near historical highs. 4) Mysteel: iron ore arrivals at China's 47 ports were 23.656 million tons in April 20–26, up 176,000 tons week over week; arrivals at 45 ports were 22.785 million tons, down 358,000 tons. 5) Iranian state media said Iran suspended exports of billets and steel plates until May 30. Agriculture 1) China's National Center for Grain and Oil Information expects monthly soybean crush around 7 million tons, down about 1.3 million tons month over month, up about 1.6 million tons year over year, and about 300,000 tons above the three-year average. 2) ITS: Malaysia palm oil exports for April 1–25 were 1,192,798 tons, down 15.7% from 1,414,990 tons in the same period last month. 3) MPOA: Malaysia palm oil output for April 1–20 is estimated up 17.52%; Peninsular Malaysia +20.76% month over month, Sabah +11.61%, Sarawak +19.62%, East Malaysia +13.82%. 4) AmSpec: Malaysia palm oil exports for April 1–25 were 1,155,770 tons, down 16.8% from 1,389,549 tons in the same period last month. 5) Xinhua: a draft amendment to China's Agricultural Law was submitted for first review on April 27 at the 22nd meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th NPC, aiming to strengthen agriculture's foundational role, promote high-quality development, advance rural revitalization and accelerate building a strong agricultural nation. 6) SGS: Malaysia palm oil exports for April 1–25 were estimated at 667,091 tons, down 38.28% from 1,080,898 tons in the same period last month. 7) USDA export inspections for the week ended April 23, 2026: soybeans 628,826 metric tons; corn 1,644,191 metric tons; wheat 365,156 metric tons. 8) As of April 27, China's nationwide port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.15601 million tons, up 11,730 tons from April 20 (8.14428 million tons). 9) SPPOMA: for April 1–25, Malaysia's palm oil yield rose 59.49% month over month; oil extraction rate +0.12%; production +60.12%. 10) Foreign media cited a USDA estimate that Indonesia's 2026/27 palm oil output could reach 48 million tons, about 3% higher year over year and above 46.7 million tons last year. 11) CONAB: Brazil's soybean harvest reached 92.1% as of April 25 (88.1% prior week, 94.8% a year ago; five-year average 92.1%). 12) USDA crop progress: as of the week ended April 26, U.S. soybean planting was 23% (vs 22% expected); emergence was 8% (0% prior week, 2% a year ago; five-year average 1%). Energy and chemicals 1) Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reiterated that uncertainties in the urea market have increased urea futures volatility, urging member firms to strengthen risk alerts and investor education. 2) As of April 27, inventories at domestic soda ash producers totaled 1.8143 million tons, down 53,300 tons from last Thursday (-2.85%). Light soda ash was 918,200 tons (-200 tons week over week); heavy soda ash 896,100 tons (-53,100 tons). 3) SMM: starting April 28, a major Shandong alumina plant cut its receiving price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton; the two-invoice ex-factory price is 570 yuan/ton (about 1,781 yuan/ton on a pure basis). 4) Foreign media: UNICA said Brazil plans to raise the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32% from 30%, increasing annual ethanol demand by about 1 billion liters. 5) Rezaei reiterated that no country can stop Iran's oil exports. Metals 1) SMM: a leading Indonesian stainless producer paused trading and weekend pricing to cope with rapidly rising raw-material costs and prepare for another round of price increases. 2) Century Aluminum's Norðurál smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland, restarted its No. 2 potline months ahead of schedule and aims to approach full-capacity output by end-July as restart accelerates. 3) Indonesia Ministry of Trade: refined tin exports in March 2026 were 4,655.03 tons, up 28.08% month over month and down 19.47% year over year. Q1 2026 refined tin exports totaled 10,943.33 tons, down 2.93% year over year. 4) Mysteel: Australia's lithium concentrate shipments to China were 25,000 tons in April 20–26, down 69,000 tons week over week. 5) International Aluminium Institute (IAI): global alumina production in March 2026 was 12.647 million tons (12.778 million tons a year ago; prior month revised to 11.816 million tons). China's March alumina output is estimated at 7.530 million tons (prior month revised to 7.050 million tons). 6) Mysteel: Xinjiang alumina tender prices were RMB 3,010–3,020 per ton ex-factory, supplied from northern regions. Analyst watch: trading logic 1) Lithium carbonate breaks 180,000: Everbright Futures said lithium carbonate opened sharply higher Monday after last week's pullback, with intraday gains topping 3% and prices clearing 180,000. CCTV reported coordinated attacks in parts of Mali on the 25th, renewing supply-risk concerns. The market also faces reduced incremental supply as Zimbabwe shipments largely conclude, with the earliest arrivals, based on a three-month cycle, expected in July. May–June could bring permit-renewal constraints for lithium projects in Jiangxi, tightening domestic supply. Near-term support remains firm. 2) Alumina spikes on headlines, rally seen fading: Xinhu Futures said rumors that Guinea may cut 2026 bauxite exports to 150 million tons (vs 185 million tons in 2025, a near 19% drop) sparked a sharp rise in alumina futures, pushing the main contract to 2,920 yuan/ton and briefly up more than 4%, while open interest fell as prices climbed. Spot prices have stayed largely unchanged amid oversupply. Even with minor output declines from isolated equipment issues, production remains well above consumption. Inventories are high, with Shanghai Steel Exchange data showing total stocks above 5.9 million tons, a record. New capacity in Guangxi is ramping up, and more than 2 million tons of added capacity is scheduled for commissioning in Q2. Aluminum smelting operating capacity has risen modestly, with net annual operating capacity growth around 700,000 tons. Without meaningful alumina production cuts, oversupply is unlikely to improve, leaving prices under pressure and the futures-led rally short-lived. Key data and events 1) April 28, 20:00: CONAB to publish the first survey for Brazil's 2026/27 sugarcane production. 2) April 28, 20:15: U.S. ADP employment change (week ended April 11).