Bitcoin ETF inflows hit longest streak since September 2025, but spot demand still trails

Bitcoin spot ETFs are on their longest run of net inflows since September 2025, led by a strong week for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). Onchain indicators and derivatives data, though, suggest the move may be leaning heavily on leverage rather than broad-based spot buying. According to CoinDesk, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in net inflows for a ninth straight trading day on April 24, adding $14.45 million and lifting cumulative inflows to roughly $2.1 billion. SoSoValue data shows the nine-day streak is the longest since September 2025. Weekly figures tell a similar story. For the week ended April 24, ETFs pulled in $823.7 million, following $996.4 million and $786.3 million over the prior two weeks. IBIT dominated, logging $983 million of weekly inflows, its strongest showing in six months. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju cautioned that the rally lacks a key ingredient: improving spot and onchain demand. He said Bitcoin's current upswing appears driven primarily by the futures market, with open interest rising while "apparent demand" onchain remains net negative despite ETF inflows and purchases by Michael Saylor. CEX.IO chief analyst Ilya Otichenko also pointed to short covering as a major driver. With open interest climbing alongside price, he said leverage has likely amplified the move, a pattern often associated with short squeezes rather than organic spot demand. Liquidation data underscores the imbalance. Since April 13, short liquidations totaled about $2.8 billion, compared with $1.8 billion in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass. Otichenko said continued growth in short positioning could still leave room for further upside if more traders are forced to cover, but he added that durability would require stronger spot demand, higher onchain activity and broader participation. Without that, a pullback becomes more likely. He also noted that part of the ETF demand may reflect cash-and-carry trades, where institutions buy IBIT shares while shorting CME Bitcoin futures to capture the basis. Because the strategy is market-neutral, headline inflows should not automatically be read as outright bullish positioning. Additional signals remain mixed. Funding rates, which help anchor futures prices to spot, are negative—often a sign traders are leaning short. In options, the 25-delta skew is also negative, around 2% to 5%, indicating investors are paying up for downside protection. Otichenko said funding rates are near historical lows while long-term holder accumulation is at an all-time high, arguing that the standoff between the two camps typically breaks with "swift and decisive" price action. Bitcoin was trading around $77,800, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours but up about 3.5% over the past week, according to CoinGecko. Predictive-market pricing cited in reports implied a 75% chance of a move toward $84,000 next, while participants assigned a 42% probability that Bitcoin closes above $78,000 on Monday.