The escalating war in Iran is stoking concerns over Europe’s gas supply security ahead of winter. European spot gas prices jumped nearly 26% in a week as storage levels sit just above 50%, well below the late-July historical norm. Even in a best-case scenario, Europe’s storage would reach only 75% by November, far short of the 90% policy target. Northwestern Europe, including Germany and the Netherlands, faces the sharpest risk of winter supply gaps.

Middle East tensions remain elevated, with no formally announced ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved. Fuel prices are up 15.7% from a year ago and, despite a modest pullback in May–June, remain at high levels. Markets have priced in 10bp of July FOMC tightening, while Bank of America expects three consecutive hikes from September through December. EY-Parthenon says if inflation cannot return to 2% because supply shocks such as the Middle East conflict keep pressure on prices, further monetary tightening would be unavoidable.

A stock-market strategy known as the “Trump Trade” has soured, with Ned Davis Research’s Trump Trade Index down about 16% since May. The firm attributed the slide largely to the U.S. conflict with Iran, which it said has lifted energy prices, inflation expectations, interest rates and the U.S. dollar, weighing on manufacturing and housing. The latest uncertainty also includes new tariff moves, including 50% duties on a range of Canadian products and planned targeted actions under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930.

The European Union has issued two legally binding rules that require Google to open key Android functions to third-party AI assistants and share anonymized search data, with potential penalties of up to 10% of annual global revenue for noncompliance. The measures take effect next year, and the search-data sharing requirement is set to apply by 2027. Separately, TSMC said it will spend another $100 billion to expand U.S. manufacturing, lifting its total commitment in the country to $265 billion. The company also reported a 77% year-on-year jump in Q2 profit to about $22 billion and raised its annual capital-expenditure plan to upwards of $64 billion.

Apple filed a lawsuit on Friday accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets through former employees and io Products, the hardware firm OpenAI acquired last year. The 41-page complaint alleges the misappropriation of confidential information including unreleased products and supply-chain details, and argues OpenAI’s hardware effort is built on unstable ground. OpenAI said it has no interest in other companies’ trade secrets.

South Korea’s Sinokor Group deployed very large crude carriers for Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s shuttle runs across the Strait of Hormuz, moving cargoes with transponders off and using ship-to-ship transfers outside the waterway. By June, vessels controlled by Sinokor were carrying as much as 1.4 million barrels a day of Emirati crude. Sinokor controls nearly 40% of available VLCC capacity worldwide, helping push spot tanker rates to record levels. The operations helped limit the impact of disruptions in the strait on global supply, but reduced flexibility in the spot shipping market and added to structural tightness in crude flows.

Trump allies are intensifying efforts to remove a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor referred to in the report as “Cook” and are also pressuring former Chair Jerome Powell to leave the Fed’s Board of Governors. The Supreme Court allowed Cook to remain in her role for now on procedural grounds, but Fed watchers said the narrow ruling does not fully insulate the central bank from future political efforts. The administration is also focusing on the open Atlanta Fed presidency, a position that will carry a vote on interest rates in 2027.

Nike’s latest results showed North America revenue edging up 3%, while China revenue fell 12% year over year and Converse posted a sharp decline. The company has also faced operational and messaging setbacks, including a Boston Marathon ad controversy, World Cup product shortages and a pullback in financial disclosures. CEO Elliott Hill has said the turnaround is moving slower than expected, with the stock down 75% from its peak five years ago and about half since he became CEO in 2024.

In an interview with CNBC, President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve’s board is “maybe a little bit hostile,” reiterated his pressure on Chair Kevin Warsh, and vowed to continue his push to remove Governor Lisa Cook. The remarks follow a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Trump was wrong to try to oust Cook last August because she did not receive due process. Warsh said he would respect the court’s decision and the Fed’s independence, while reaffirming the institution’s focus on price stability and its dual mandate. The episode has not triggered any immediate shift in monetary policy, but has reinforced market concerns about political interference risks.