Analytics firm Santiment reports that social media sentiment around Bitcoin has shifted back toward optimism, with bullish mentions now outnumbering bearish ones. Historical patterns suggest that such waves of greed have often aligned with local tops, even as Bitcoin currently consolidates around $88,000. Session-based return data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn indicates flat performance across US, European, and Asia-Pacific trading hours.

According to on-chain data shared by Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently trading close to the cost basis of active market participants, implying this group is roughly at break-even. The analysis compares the spot price with several realized price models, including the overall Realized Price at $56,200, the True Market Mean at $81,100, the Active Realized Price at $87,700, and the Short-Term Holder Realized Price at $99,900. With Bitcoin hovering near $87,700 and down 2.6% over the past week, short-term holders are currently sitting on unrealized losses while the broader active cohort remains neutral.

On-chain data attributed to Darkfrost shows that XRP inflows to Binance have climbed sharply since December 15, with values holding above 35 million tokens and peaking at 116 million. This sustained rise in exchange deposits, combined with whales offloading 40 million XRP and the price sliding to about $1.87, suggests ongoing selling pressure that could prolong or deepen the current correction.

Analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted that XRP's 15-minute chart appears to be forming a symmetrical triangle pattern that could precede a price swing of about 10%. The asset recently rebounded from the triangle's lower trendline on Christmas, leaving open the possibility of a breakout in either direction. At the time of writing, XRP is changing hands near $1.84, having declined 3.3% over the past week.

CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn said on X that about 6.6 million BTC are positioned above the latest spot price, based on the Supply In Loss metric. His charts suggest dense cost-basis clusters that may add selling pressure if price revisits those levels, while BTC was last near $88,600.

According to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, market sentiment has stayed in the extreme fear band for 13 consecutive days while Bitcoin is trading around $87,500. The gauge, which aggregates market cap dominance, volume, Google Trends, social activity, and volatility into a 0–100 score, currently sits at 23, marking a prolonged period of pessimism. Historically, major tops and bottoms have often formed when the index sits in its extreme zones, but it is still unclear whether the latest stretch will mark a decisive cycle low.

Analyst Ali Martinez, in a new X thread, says Bitcoin's major cycles have historically taken about 1,064 days from bear-market lows to tops and roughly 364 days from tops to subsequent bottoms, implying a potential bottom around October 2026. He also maps a 70% drawdown scenario to about $37,500, while BTC trades near $87,300, up 0.7% week-on-week.

In a post on X, Santiment said XRP's Positive/Negative Sentiment ratio has fallen into its "fear zone", with the reading around 1.01. The firm noted a prior spike into a "greed zone" was followed by a price pullback. At the time of writing, XRP trades near $1.90, down 1.3% over the past 24 hours.

In the past day, traders have added new Bitcoin positions in the perpetual futures market, and the Funding Rate indicates these are largely leveraged long bets. On-chain data shows Open Interest climbed from 304,000 BTC to 310,000 BTC alongside a price recovery toward $90,000, while the Funding Rate increased from 0.04% to 0.09%. Bitcoin has since eased slightly from its latest high, with the spot price pulling back to $89,500.