On Thursday, February 12, Standard Chartered lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000, after previously cutting it from $300,000 in December. The bank pointed to sustained ETF outflows, a weaker macroeconomic outlook and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, with its analyst warning of further price capitulation and a potential drop toward $50,000 before stabilization.

From January 1 to February 4, 2026, BlackRock's net digital asset holdings declined from $78.36 billion to $68.06 billion, a drop of $10.3 billion largely tied to market weakness. Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for most of the change, alongside a reduction of 2,930 BTC and 138,240 ETH, while recent single-day moves saw BlackRock driving the majority of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum redemptions.

In 2025, verified physical assaults and kidnappings targeting crypto holders reached 72, a 75% year-over-year jump. Europe made up more than 40% of cases, while kidnappings rose 66% and physical assaults surged 250%. Reported financial losses exceeded $40.9 million.

On Monday, February 2, BlackRock trimmed its exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum by more than $600 million, offloading 6,306 BTC worth about $496.41 million and 58,327 ETH valued at roughly $138.23 million. These moves made the firm responsible for 78% of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and nearly 54% of Ethereum redemptions that day, while both BTC and ETH prices remained under pressure in early February.

On Monday, February 2, Bitcoin traded below $77,000 amid macro headwinds, institutional outflows, and liquidations. Finbold's AI tool, combining ChatGPT, Gemini 2.5 Flash, and Claude Sonnet 4, projects $76,667 for February 28, 2026, versus a current $76,784. Individual model calls range from $72,500 to $82,500, highlighting near-term uncertainty.

Macro analyst Michaël van de Poppe says gold’s momentum has driven its RSI above 91, a threshold last seen in December 1979 and higher than August 2020. He notes that after the 2020 spike, gold consolidated while Bitcoin advanced about 5–6x, prompting debate over whether a similar setup could unfold.

Ethereum has recently extended weekly losses to nearly 10%, with ETH trading around $2,905 amid a bearish technical backdrop. Under a base-case scenario of no major shocks and steady network adoption, ChatGPT estimates the price could reach about $3,400 by February 1, 2026, implying roughly 17% potential upside. The AI model also outlines downside risk toward $2,400 and an upside path above $4,000, depending on whether key support and resistance levels hold.

Ripple will unlock 1,000,000,000 XRP from escrow on February 1, 2026, under its monthly schedule. In January, 70% of the release—700,000,000 XRP—was re-escrowed, limiting circulating supply, while XRP moved from around $1.84 to $1.91 on January 1–2 amid broader catalysts, including Japan's 2026 tax reforms and an XRP ETF.

According to projections attributed to ChatGPT, Bitcoin could trade between $95,000 and $120,000 on February 1, 2026, implying notable upside from the current level near $89,000. The model also outlines a downside scenario toward $75,000–$90,000 and a less likely bullish path as high as $150,000, while flagging near-term uncertainty over whether BTC can hold above $90,000 after a weekly drop of more than 6%.