Bitcoin Exchange Netflow measures the difference between BTC inflows and outflows on centralized exchanges and helps assess buy and sell pressure. This guide explains how the metric is calculated, how to read positive, negative and neutral values, and how to turn them into trading signals with concrete historical examples. It also shows how to combine Netflow with indicators like SOPR, funding rates and exchange reserves, while outlining key limitations and risks.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin's short-term holders are underwater as price trades below their average cost basis, and the STH Realized Price keeps falling. Stress has persisted since October 17, with weekly and monthly gains of +0.9% and +2.3% but a −26.7% quarterly drop; the model expects ~3% downside over the next week.

After the pullback from October's highs, Bitcoin is trading in the $87–90K band while Supply in Profit has contracted to 13.5M BTC. According to the analysis, the gap between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of this metric is shrinking by about 28K BTC per day, opening room for a bullish crossover between late February and early March 2026 if price stays above $75–80K. A drop toward or below $70K could instead recreate a 2022-style bearish configuration and delay recovery for up to a year.

According to Axel Adler Jr., three months of on-chain data show that Bitcoin's realized losses have dropped from a 7-day average of $2.4B in late November to $0.5B, an 80% reduction from capitulation levels. November 21–22 saw z-scores as high as 8.7–10.9 and daily losses above $5B, while later spikes with z-score near 1–2 are framed as normal volatility rather than renewed distress. Net realized profit/loss remains negative but is trending toward the zero line, which the analysis views as a condition for a potential local recovery if new demand appears.

According to analysis by Axel Adler Jr., the Bitcoin network is currently experiencing sustained capital outflows, with the 7-day net flow average stuck at −$160M despite some positive daily readings around December 20–25. Elevated supply activity over the last 180 days, combined with predominantly loss-making sales, keeps the market in a risk-off regime until the 7-day moving average of net flows recovers to at least zero.

Over the past 3 months, Bitcoin has fallen 19.7% with a $21.5K drawdown and is down 10.5% year-over-year, while short-term performance has stabilized around flat. Monthly RSI now sits at 56.5, below its 12‑month SMA and close to the 4‑year average, levels that previously marked shifts between cyclical corrections and deeper bearish phases.

Axel Adler Jr. reports the composite sentiment index fell to 40%, flagging risk-off conditions as Bitcoin trades near $87,400 under all short-term holder realized price bands. Nearby hurdles sit at $90,300 and then a cluster at $100,400–$101,800, while the broader realized price support stands at $56,300.

BTC's composite Regime Score sits at +16.3, placing it in the +15–30 neutral bracket associated with historically positive returns. Backtests for 2025 show average gains of +3.8% over 30 days, while the liquidation oscillator is at −11% and Long Liquidation Dominance is 44%, indicating short closures predominance. The mix signals a tactical edge for buyers.

According to Axel Adler Jr., the Miner Financial Health Index is at 22%, while the Demand–Supply Balance reads 38% on a 30‑day average. Nominal miner revenue has fallen to about ~40M, marking local lows and signaling profitability strain even with BTC trading well above summer 2022 levels. A sustained dip below the 20% threshold has historically preceded miner capitulation.